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Executive Summary
Due to the similarities between a stock market and a betting exchange, this report
investigates the application of stock market theories and behavioural Finance concepts to
Betfair, a leading UK betting exchange. This is carried out by adopting both quantitative and
qualitative research methods. Football betting markets are the primary focus of the report,
and it is these that the theory is primarily applied. It is found that several of the stock market
theories, particularly pricing efficiency theories, can be successfully applied. Behavioural
finance concepts are also found to apply to the betting exchange markets.

Preface
Due the relatively new existence of betting exchanges, I felt the area had excellent scope for
revolutionary research. Having observed both the stock markets and betting markets for a
number of years, I felt that it would be interesting to apply theories from one to the other. This
proved to be an extremely fascinating investigation and has fuelled several topics for further
research. I would like to express my greatest appreciation for the contribution of Mrs Jo
Grimshaw for her excellent guidance throughout.

Table of Contents
____________________________________________________________________________________________________________
By Gareth Coen, Table of Contents
BAIFCMS 3,
April 2003
3
Section No. Content Page
3.0 List of appendices 4
4.0 Main Text
4.1 Introduction to Betting Exchanges 5
4.2 Aims and Objectives 9
4.3 Literature Review 10
4.4 Methodology 18
4.5 Statement of Results 19
5.0 Analysis 20
6.0 Conclusions 34
7.0 Bibliography 35
8.0 Appendices 38
List of Appendices
Section 8.1: Barclaycard Premiership Winner Odds
Appendix 1.1: Manchester United Odds (2nd October- 28th November 2002)
Appendix 1.2: Arsenal Odds (2nd October- 28th November 2002)
Appendix 1.3 Liverpool Odds (2nd October- 28th November 2002)
Section 8.2: Worthington Cup Final Next Goal Odds
Appendix 2.0: Consolidated ‘In Running’ Odds
Appendix 2.1: ‘In Running’ Liverpool
Appendix 2.2: ‘In Running’ Manchester United
Appendix 2.3: ‘In Running’ No Goal
Section 8.3: Scottish Premier League- Glasgow Rangers
versus Glasgow Celtic ‘In Running’ Match
Odds

Bibliography
____________________________________________________________________________________________________________
Bibliography - Books
Arnold, G (1998), Corporate Financial Management, Financial Times Professional Limited
Giddeon, K. (1994), ‘The rationality of gambling: Gamblers’ conceptions of probability,
chance, and luck’, in Wright, G. and Ayton, P. (eds.), Subjective Probability, Chichester,
England : John Wiley & Sons, pp. 485-99
Shiller, R.J. (2001), Irrational Exuberance, Princeton University Press
Shleifer, A (2000), Inefficient Markets: An introduction to Behavioural Finance, Oxford
University Press
Smith, T (1992), Accounting for Growth, London: Century Business

Bibliography - Journals
Basu, S (1977)
“Investment performance of common stocks in relation to their price/earnings ratios: A test of
the efficient market hypothesis”
Journal of Finance, 32(3), June, pp. 663-82
Bernard, V; Thomas, J., (1989) ‘Post-Earnings-Announcement Drift: Delayed price response
or risk premium?’, Journal of Accounting Research, (Supplement), pp.1-36
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