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Since the existence of tradable , China 's A-share market , there are many non-tradable shares. Assuming all outstanding shares on the open market in two and completely sold. All non- tradable shares tradable shares are at a relatively low price in private transfer agreement signed completely sold. Hutchison shares total circulation , number of shares which the non- tradable shares , the total number of shares outstanding shares , there . Let non-tradable shares and the ratio of the number of shares outstanding , that is , the.

模型将IPO股票在一级市场和二级市场的整个发行过程分为四个阶段t=0,1,2,3,。t=0时，股票在一级市场发行，IPO的价格和发行量都在这个时候确定。t=1,2,3三个阶段为所有流通股票在二级市场公开发行的阶段。t=1时，流通股票开始在二级市场发行。热销市场中，该阶段为确定的牛市。短期发行时，t=1也可假设为流通股票在二级市场买卖交易的第一天。交易一旦开始，后面的阶段，市场可能按照感性投资者的预期，继续为牛市，也可能不再是牛市，但是牛市迟早将会明确的结束。

Model IPO shares in the primary market and the secondary market throughout the release process is divided into four stages t = 0,1,2,3,. At t = 0 , the stock issuance in the primary market , IPO issue price and quantity are determined at this time . t = 1,2,3 three phases for all outstanding shares in the secondary market public offering stage. t = 1 , the flow in the secondary market, the stock began to release . Hot market, this stage to determine the bull . Short-term issue , t = 1 can be assumed to be circulating in the secondary market trading of stocks trading on the first day . Once you start trading , behind the stage, the market may be in accordance with the emotional expectations of investors , as the bull market continues , it may no longer be the bull , but the bull market will sooner or later definite end . From t = 1 to make clear before the end of the bull market period of time t = 2, that is at this stage uncertain market conditions , which may be a bull market , may not be the bull. t = 3 for the hot end of the market a clear end time , when investors and rational investors emotional value of the stock will no longer have objections to the intrinsic value of the stock price down point . Remember the IPO price , outstanding shares at the price when t = 1,2,3 , respectively . Remember the trading price of non-tradable shares tradable shares in the secondary market with the first transaction price ratio , viz.

Since t = 2 time uncertain market conditions , the market is likely to continue on a stage for the bull market to continue , it could weaken the market is no longer a bull market. Denoted at t = 2 the probability of ending the bull . Two types of market participants have different views stock value , in the final analysis it is the right size hold different opinions. Emotional investors believe the bull market will certainly continue that hot market in t = 2 with probability ends. Rational investors do not think so , they think hot market in t = 2 to the probability of exit.

Let issuance process without bonus and discounts. IPO shares in the secondary market prior to listing, the intrinsic value of each stock rational investors through the rational outlook on the company forecast earnings , denoted by . If the market is not emotional investors , that is, for each IPO shares at t = 1 the intrinsic value . Since t = 3 to the end of the end of the bull market clear moment , then lowered to the intrinsic value of the stock price point , that is .

Sensual investors in the secondary marke