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The impact of uncertainty on investment has attracted considerable attention in analytical and empirical macroeconomic literature. In theory, however, uncertainty can affect investment through different channels, some of which operate in mutually opposing directions. So the sign of its overall effect is ambiguous and can be assessed only empirically. To thoroughly assess the impact of macroeconomic uncertainty on private investment, we need a large panel data set on developing countries. There by we can draw a distinction between sample variability and uncertainty, construct alternative measures of the volatility of innovations tin the five key macroeconomic variables (inflation, growth, the terms of trade, the real exchange rate, and the price of capital goods), and examine their association with aggregate private investment. .(http//www.wds.worldbank.org/)

To avoid the problem of uncertainty in estimated figures ranges of figures can be used. The most suitable way to take account of the uncertainty of the estimates is to make a complete set of tables for each different set of assumptions.

For projections of national income, we shall assume that a set of national accounts exists, which gives all the figures required for year zero.

Projections are usually calculated in constant prices.

Then the projection of total resources available and their utilization should be calculated. The resources available are the sum of GDP and the net amount obtained from abroad.

Finally we should have to look at the government's accounts to see how the taxation programme fits into the overall programme.

3.3   Direction of the Economy of Sri Lanka

2000         2003         2006         2008         2010

GDP Growth rate (%)       6.0 6.3   7.4   7.6   8.2

Unemployment rate (%)  7.4 6.3   5.1   3.8   3.0

Investment/GDP      28.0        29.0 33.0 34.3 35.0

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