摘要:本文是一篇石油价格与经济的留学生论文,石油进口国对于油价上涨的脆弱性明显依赖于他们净进口国的程度以及他们国家经济的石油强度。在国际货币基金组织(imf)研究部门的援助下,根据国际能源署与经合组织经济部门的合作得出了一个量化研究结果。
ions presented in this paper suggest that further increases in oil prices sustained over the medium term would undermine significantly the prospects for continued global economic recovery. Oil importing developing countries would generally suffer the most as their economies are more oil-intensive and less able to weather the financial turmoil wrought by higher oil-import costs.
The general economic background to the current run-up in prices is significantly different to previous oil-price shocks, all of which coincided with an economic boom when economies were already overheating. Prices are now rising in a situation of tentative economic revival, excess capacity and low inflation. Firms are less able to pass through higher energy-input costs in higher prices of goods and services because of strong competition in wholesale and retail markets. As a result, higher oil prices have so far eroded profits more than they have pushed up inflation.
The consumer price index growth has fallen in almost every OECD country in the past year, from 2.3% to 2.0% in the Euro zone and 2.4% to 1.9% in the United States in the 12 months to December 2003. Deflation in Japan has worsened from -0.3% to - 0.4% over the same period. A weaker dollar since 2002 has also offset partly the impact of higher oil prices in many countries, especially in the euro-zone and Japan.
The squeeze on profits delayed the recovery in business investment and employment, which began in earnest in 2003 in many parts of the world. In contrast to previous oil shocks, the financial authorities in many countries have so far been able to hold down interest rates without risking an inflationary spiral.
Yet the economic threats posed by higher oil prices remain real. Fears of OPEC supply cuts, political tensions in Venezuela and tight stocks have recently driven up international crude oil and product prices even further. Current market conditions are more unstable than normal, in part because of geopolitical uncertainties and because tight product markets – notably for gasoline in the United States – are reinforcing upward pressures on crude prices.
The hike of futures prices during the past several months implies that recent oil price rises could be sustained. If that is the case, the macroeconomic consequences for importing countries could be painful, especially in view of the severe budget-deficit problems being experienced in all OECD regions and stubbornly high levels of unemployment in many countries. Fiscal imbalances would worsen, pressure to raise interest rates would grow and the current revival in business and consumer confidence would be cut short, threatening the durability of the current cyclical economic upturn.
References
Eichengreen, B., Y. Rhee and H. Tong (2004), “The Impact of China on the Exports of Other Asian Countries,” NBER Working Paper no.10768 (September).
Frankel, J. and D. (1999), “Does Trade Cause Growth?” American Economic Review 89, pp. 379-399.
Grubert, H. and J. Mutti (1991), “Taxes, Tariffs and Transfer Pricing in Multinational Corporate Decision-Making,” Review of Economics and Statistics 73, pp.285-293.
Ianchovichina, E. and W. Martin (2005), “Trade Impacts of China’s WTO Accession,” this volume.
Lian, D. (2005), “Singapore’s Lessons for China,” Morgan Stanley Global Economic Forum (5 May),
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