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cott Filter on the variables above which is private consumption, investment and government expenditures, all the trends can be removed. After detrending process, it has clearly shown that the movement of all variables have became fluctuating. Before detrending process, the trends of these three variables are difficult to observe, because the movement of trend of these three variables are captured by the time trend due to increasing over time. It means that the amounts of private consumption, investment and government expenditures are accumulated from year to year, so it will not able to observe whether it was increase or decrease.

Figure 4.2.4: Unemployment rate

Figure 4.2.5: Export

Figure 4.2.4 and figure 4.2.5 show the trends of unemployment rate and net export. Although the graphs show there are fluctuations for these two variables, but the cycles of these two variables show a clearer fluctuation after detrending. It is easier to see that whether the variables are increase or decrease.

Notes: *** Denotes significance at 1% level and reject null hypothesis

Coefficient of model: ln Unemploy = 0.0000000000000376 - 0.808474 ln C –

0.904420 ln I + 0.213398 ln G + 0.162743 ln Ex

The result of the regression analysis shows that all the variables are not significant except the investment variable is significant at 1% level. This result implies that the private consumption, government consumption and net export do not have significant relationship with the unemployment rate. On the other hand, the investment variable has showed a significant relationship with the unemployment rate. The coefficient of private consumption, government consumption and net export is inconsistent with the expected sign. The coefficient of investment variable is consistent with expected sign. From the result, it shows that investment is strongly affect the unemployment rate and the others variables are not affecting the unemployment rate.

The Adjusted R2 for the regression analysis is about 0.67. This result implies that about 67% of the variation in unemployment rate is explained by the private consumption, government expenditures, private investment and net export. The rest of 33% is explained by other factors such as interest rate, inflation rate, and etc. The F Statistics is Joint Hypothesis Test, and the result has shown that it is significant at 1% significant level. Therefore, at least one of the coefficients of independent variable is not equal to zero. All the variables show a positively relationship with the unemployment rate except the investment variable shows a negatively relationship with the unemployment rate. 1% increase in private consumption will increase the unemployment rate by 0.8085%. 1% increase in government consumption will increase the unemployment rate by 0.2134%. 1% increase in net export will increase the unemployment rate by 0.1627%. 1% increase in private investment will reduce the unemployment rate by 0.9044%. This result implies that when the private investment increases, companies will recruit more labor for the new investment and the unemployment rate decrease.

The regression result shown that private consumption is not significant to the unemployment rate. This because no matter people spend more or less will not affect the unemployment rate. The money spent by the private sector is not to hire lab本论文由英语论文网提供整理，提供论文代写，英语论文代写，代写论文，代写英语论文，代写留学生论文，代写英文论文，留学生论文代写相关核心关键词搜索。