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a of a country, the Generalized System of Preference (GSP), whether the country partners are membership of the WTO/GATT, or RTA would affect the trade. All these variables above would be contained in the part of methodology in this paper. The formal membership data for the WTO/GATT or regional trade agreement (RTA) are from the WTO website statistic database. As for the data of GDP, they are from the International Monetary Fund (IMF), the World Bank, and the Oxford Economics database by constant price US dollars in 2005. GDP per capita is from the World Bank's Statistic and the data of a country's exports and imports are from the WTO statistic database and measured by US dollars with constant prices and exchange rate in 2005, adjusted quarterly. Actually, all of the frequency in this paper is quarterly data. Besides, the area of a country, land border, common religions, common languages, are from the CIA World Fact-book. To calculate the great circle distances, we usually measure the longitude and latitude of the capital or 'economic center' of each economy, which comes from the CEPII website. The Generalized System of Preference (GSP) is an important variable which has been studied by many experts who believe it can encourage trade between partners, thus I would also add it in my model. Since GSP is defined as a unilateral trade concessions giving by industrialized countries to developing countries, the dummy in this paper equals to one if the trade partner provides GSP to China, otherwise zero. The GSP data is from United Nations: Generalized System of Preferences List of Beneficiaries (2011). For the Baltic Exchange Dry Index (BDI), which origins from the Baltic Exchange, the data used in this paper started from the first quarter in1990 and end in the fourth quarter in 2011. BDI is published daily by the Baltic Exchange in London, which is not only an important basis for price trend of China Ocean Shipping Company's dry bulk shipping stock, but also an indicator refers to the non-ferrous metals, coal and other primary manufactured commodities' stock price movements. In fact, the freight price level will affect the ups and downs of the index, thus if the BDI is ascending, it means that the freight in shipping is also up. Furthermore, the growing freight reflects an increasing in cargo ship. Consequently the increasing demand for ships proves a prosperous international trade. Therefore, the higher BDI could reflect prosperity of the shipping market, which is also a reflection of international trade. As a result, this paper categorizes the BDI as a variable in the equation to estimate whether it is a factor that affect China's international trade. The frequency for the BDI in this paper is quarterly and valued by US dollars. In this paper, the mainly selected economies are those who have more foreign trade with China, such as Russian, the United States, Canada, Japan, South Korean, the Great Britain, France, German, Brazil, Australia, China Hongkong, Thailand, Malaysia, Indonesia, India, Singapore and Chinese Taipei, which these countries above have accounted for more than 75% of the total trade of China according to the Chinese Statistical Yearbook (CSY) 2011. The trade flow estimated in the gravity model is defined as the exports plus imports of China's bilateral trade with its partners and is the real value. All the data began from the first quarter in 1990 to the last quarter in 2011.

5. Methods

5.1 The Gravity