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regions to determine the rational direction for future economic development and principles of adjusting industrial structures.
4.112 Mathematics model
According to the shift-share analysis theory, every regional change can be divided into three parts: national growth effect (RS), industry mix effect (PS), and local share effect (DS). National growth effect is the part of change which attributes to the total growth of the national economy as a whole. Industry mix effect is the part of change which attributes to the performance of the specific economic industry. Local share effect is the part of change which attributes to regional influences.
The formula can be expressed as:
Growth of regional economy (G) = National growth effect (RS) + Industry mix effect (PS) +Local share effect (DS)
So the actual growth of regional economy can be divided into three components.
1. National growth effect : RS= R
Where, RS is the growth share of Ningbo if every industry grows at the rate of the whole research area (the growth rate of gross domestic product of Zhejiang Province). is the expected production value of industry i in Ningbo, while R is the growth rate of GDP in the Zhejiang Province. We compare the assumed level of growth with the actual level of growth. If the assumed value is higher than the actual value, the overall deviation value of Ningbo is positive. If the assumed value is lower than the actual value, the overall deviation value of Ningbo is negative.
2. Industry mix effect: PS=-R=(-R)
Where PS is the difference between the growth amount of Ningbo at the growth rate of industry i in the Zhejiang Province and the growth amount at the growth rate of GDP in the Zhejiang Province. This value reflects the growth or decline of industry i in Ningbo along with the growth or decline of industry i in Zhejiang. is the growth rate of industry i in Zhejiang Province. If the majority of industries in Ningbo are rapid growth industries, PS value is larger than 0, and vice versa.
3. Local share effect: DS=-=
In the equation, DS is the difference between in Ningbo industry I’s growth amount at the rate of actual growth and the growth amount at the growth rate of the same industry in Zhejiang Province. Comparing with the case in Zhejiang, this value reflects regional advantages or regional disadvantages of industry i in Ningbo. represents the actual growth rate of industry i in Ningbo.
The relationship among these three factors is:
G=RS+PS+DS= R+ (-R) +
Similarily, the economy growth rate of Ningbo (Gr) can be expressed in the terms of R, (-R), and:
= R+ (-R)
Where the economy growth rate of Ningbo, R is the growth rate of GDP in Zhejiang province, is the estimated growth rate of various industries in Ningbo according to the estimated growth rate of the whole region (Zhejiang Province)
=(+1)/-1
If the majority of industries in Ningbo are rapid growth industries, then -R is larger than 0; If the majority of industries in Ningbo are non-rapid growth industries, then -R is smaller than 0. If the competitive force of Ningbo is stronger than the level in the whole research region, will be larger than 0. If the competitive force of Ningbo is weaker than the level in the whole research region, then is smaller than 0.
4.12 Accessibility indica