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details. This model is very intuitive and has a strong explanatory power. It is able to help the analyst to complete the first iteration of the facts, which can make case close to the reality as soon as possible. Moreover, the information required by people applying the model is relatively easy to obtain, only relying solely on official documents and bulletins is almost enough to help analyst to construct a complete logical picture. In the case, the author first investigated the four hypothesises of explaination about Soviet missile setting behavior, advantages of the USA implemented naval blockade and how Khrushchev finally chose to leave after weighing the advantage and disadvantage under this model. Meanwhile, the disadvantage of this model is also obvious. It merely narrowly answered “why”, namely A takes behavior B for what objective. However, even if we treat the country as a whole, there are still many problems and phenomena can not be interpretted ranationality in practice since there are incomplete information, path-dependent, and so on. In addition, there are many competing forces within a state, what finally influence the result of decision making perhaps is a balance of interest rather than the rational consideration.
When Allison explain the specific measures taken by the Soviet Union, the first theoretical model has encountered a problem that all of the four hypotheses based on a rational analysis can not explicate the inconsistencies lies in the Soviet behavior. Thus the author introduced the organizational behavior model , trying to investigate more details of the case. In the organizational behavior model, the state and government is seen as a huge machine and emphasizing the existing plans and procedures have limited organizational behavior which makes the organization leaders can not make the most rational scheme, only can select from the exisiting menu of organization. So the dominant mode of inference in this model is that organizational behavior has stability, organizational behavior at T time can be explained by its own status at T-1 time and also can use its status at T time to predict its behavior at T+1 time. An important basis for establishing this model is that changes in organization are gradual. Admittedly organization will mutate in certain moments, however, Allison noted that this significant change always occurred afer the incident rather than before. So when dealing with the major emergency issue, like the Cuban missile crisis, organizational behavior model has a stronger explanatory power. The author use Model II to interpretate the blurred Soviet strategic intention, its inconsistent behaviors as well as problems occurred in the United States when they obtained information and implemented naval blockade plan. He put the blame on no sufficient understanding between each department cooperation and dealing with the new complicated situation with inherent procedure. That is, these problems are not due to the decision making, but the specific implementation. After the introduction of organizational behavior model, it is easy to find that the explaination of case becomes lively all of a sudden, deeping into the specific details, do not remain on the analysis of surface motivation. Meanwhile, requirements of applying the organizational model are high, too. Because you need more information about the organizaition characteristics as evidences. If the event has not turned to be a historical event