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an raw materials for Chinese manufactures will hinder the industrialisation ambitions of African economies (Giovannetti and Sanfilippo, 2009; Kaplinsky and Morris, 2007). In 2006, the former South African President Thabo Mbeki warned: 'If Africa continues to just export raw materials to China while importing Chinese manufactured goods, the African continent could be condemned to underdevelopment' (The Namibian, 2007, accessed 05/10/11).

At the 2006 FOCAC meeting, China doubled the number of items that could be imported dutyfree from Africa’s Least Developed Countries (LDCs) to 440. Eighty -eight per cent of products on the list have at some point been exported to China. The average margin of preference was a 10.4 per cent tariff. The estimated overall economic benefit, using a simple ‘implicit transfer’ method, is $10m per annum (Minson, 2008). Realising the trade benefits for such change is far from easy. There is uncertainty about which products are exempt; many of sub-Saharan Africa’s more important products are excluded and China’s phyto -sanitary requirements are also presenting a hurdle (Danchi, 2010).

China subsequently further opened its market to poorer African exporters, offering zero-tariff treatment for 95 per cent of exports from LDCs. In 2010, zero tariff was applied to 60 per cent of their exported commodities. Since preferences apply only to the poorest economies, they nevertheless have the secondary effect of excluding countries such as Kenya and Ghana, which are on the threshold of realising a manufacturing base (Venables, 2008: 14).

The Forum includes countries from the whole continent, not just those south of the Sahara, which are the main focus of this study, but nevertheless excludes countries not observing the One China policy, Swaziland, Burkina Faso, the Gambia and Sao and Tome Principe, which do not have diplomatic ties with China.

Similarly excluded from trade preferences is South Africa, which, believing job losses were occurring in its textiles sector due to increasing Chinese imports, in 2007 imposed quotas on selected lines from China (van Eeden, 2009). Africa has struggled to deal with the challenge of China’s trade competitiveness. South African President Zuma asked an audience in 2011: “How do we trade with China in a way that benefits us as well?” ( Business Day, 2011). Addressing a seminar in South Africa to mark the 10 th anniversary of FOCAC, then Chinese Vice-President Xi Jinping committed China to “enlarge the scale of China-Africa trade, and optimise the trade structure”. He promised that China would seek opportunities to increase its imports. 2 China’s 2010 inaugural white paper on economic ties between China and Africa, China-Africa Economic and Trade Cooperation, recognised the need to optimise the level and composition of trade.

Multiple factors influence the notion of ‘optimal’ trade, both by level and composition. In the field of economic geography, trade levels and prospects have been linked to endowment level and geographic position. Empirically, ‘over’ and ‘under’-trading have been estimated using gravity models.

The gravity model was first used by Tinbergen (1962) to link trade levels to ‘distance’ (costs of trade) and ‘mass’ (GDP, population, and so on). Here we use a gravity model to scope本论文由英语论文网提供整理，提供论文代写，英语论文代写，代写论文，代写英语论文，代写留学生论文，代写英文论文，留学生论文代写相关核心关键词搜索。