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The Growth, Decline and Survival of Small Businesses: An Exploratory Study of Life Cycles

Using U.S. Census Bureau special tabulations, we follow a cohort of small (singleestablishment)firms formed in 1992 and a cohort of fast growers to 2002 to track theiremployment changes. Explorative findings showed growing firms as generally aconstant share of the economy with a minor business cycle effect, growing firmsoutnumbering decliners, new firms not growing much, and fast growers in a given yeartending to revert to the mean in the following year. The findings are presented as anopening statement, but are far from final salvo into the discussion of small-firm growth.Introductionjsbm_282 531..550
In Robert Lucas’ (1978) seminal paper
on firm size, he predicted that the world
would be taken over by large businesses.
With the benefit of hindsight, this has not
occurred. Advances in technology, shifts
in consumer tastes toward services, more
*The authors would like to thank Trey Cole, U.S. Census Bureau, for his efforts in producing
the tables. The authors would also like to acknowledge that the Office of Advocacy, U.S. Small
Business Administration funded the special tabulations.
Brian Headd is an economist with the U.S. Small Business Administration’s Office ofAdvocacy focusing on small business data and trends. Brian has a wide array of government
data knowledge garnered through working for the SBA, the Bureau of Labor Statistics and the
Federal Reserve Bank. He earned his Masters of Arts in Economics from the George Washington University.
Bruce A. Kirchhoff is distinguished professor of Entrepreneurship and director of thetechnological entrepreneurship program at New Jersey Institute of Technology in Newark, NJ.
His prior credentials include service as Chief Economist for the U.S. Small Business Administration,
Director of the Center for Entrepreneurship and Public Policy at Fairleigh Dickinson
University, and Director of Research in Babson College’sEntrepreneurship Center. Dr.
Kirchhoff earned his Ph.D. in Business Administration from the University of Utah where he
also earned an MBA. He received a Bachelor of Science degree in chemical engineering from
Case Western Reserve University.
Address correspondence to: Brian Headd, 409 Third St., SW, Washington, DC 20416. E-mail:
brian.headd@sba.gov.
Journal of Small Business Management 2009 47(4), pp. 531–550
HEADD AND KIRCHHOFF 531available financing, and other factorshave enabled new and continuing smallbusinesses to contradict Lucas’ forecast
and maintain their 50-percent share ofthe U.S. economy (Joel Popkin and
Company 2002). While small businesseshave maintained their share, the dynamicaspects of their life cycle (firm entry,growth, decline, and exit) has been oflittle focus, most likely because of thedearth of firm-age data. This paperattempts to begin the discussion of basictenets about the growth of businessesover time.

References
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Growth, and Turnover by Size of
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Armington, C., A. Robb, and Z. Acs
(1999). “Measures of Job Flow
Dynamics in the U.S.,” U.S. Census
Bureau, Center for Economic Studies
working paper.
Audretsch, D. B., and Z. J. Acs (1994).
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