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论文作者:留学生论文论文属性:硕士毕业论文 dissertation登出时间:2010-08-29编辑:vshellyn点击率:5076
论文字数:12000论文编号:org201008292050475467语种:英语 English地区:美国价格:$ 44
关键词:金融分析AccuracyExplainabilityDividendFree Cash Flowand Abnormal Earnings Equity Value Estimates
金融分析论文 Comparing the Accuracy and Explainability of Dividend, Free Cash Flow, and Abnormal Earnings Equity Value Estimates
1. Introduction
This study provides empirical evidence on the reliability of intrinsic value estimates derived from three theoretically equivalent valuation models: the discounted dividend (DIV) model, the discounted free cash flow (FCO) model, and the discounted abnormal earnings (AE) model. We use Value Line (VL) annual forecasts of the elements in these models to calculate value estimates for a sample of publicly traded firms fol- lowed by Value Line during 1989-93.1 We contrast the reliability of value estimates in terms of their accuracy (defined as the absolute price scaled difference between the value estimate and the current security price) and in terms of their explainability (defined as the ability of value esti- mates to explain cross-sectional variation in current security prices).
In theory, the models yield identical estimates of intrinsic values; in practice, they will differ if the forecasted attributes, growth rates, or dis- count rates are inconsistent.
Although by documenting significant dif- ferences across DIM FCF, and AE value estimates our results speak to the consistency question, our objective is to present a pragmatic exercise comparing the reliability of these value estimates, recognizing that the forecasts underlying them may be inconsistent. That is, we try to repli- cate the typical situation facing an investor using a valuation model to calculate an estimate of the intrinsic value of a firm. Under this view, the empirical work addresses which series of forecasts investors seem to use to value equity securities. The results show that AE value estimates perform significantly better han DIV or FCF value estimates. The median absolute prediction error for the AE model is about three-quarters that of the FCF model (30% versus 41%) and less than one-half that of the DIVmodel (30% versus 69%). Further, AE value estimates explain 71% of the variation in本论文由英语论文网提供整理,提供论文代写,英语论文代写,代写论文,代写英语论文,代写留学生论文,代写英文论文,留学生论文代写相关核心关键词搜索。