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我们发现：
(1) 政策对我国股市确实有显著影响，中国的“政策市”问题十分严重。
(2) 随着资本市场的发展，股市在货币政策传导机制中将扮演越来越重要的角色。
为了完善股票市场，避免“政策市”的危害，我们应增强制度创新，制定积极地财经政策，正确对待国际资本，同时在股票市场试行集体诉讼制度。同时，我国中央银行应及早将以股票价格为代表的资产价格纳入政策的调控目标或至少是将其作为关注对象，同时政府应该把保持股票市场的稳定作为政策的最终目标之一。

关键词：政策，中国股市，波动影响，实证分析，政策市


The Analysis of the Impact on Stock Market of Policy in China /政策对中国股市的影响分析

1. Introduction
1.1 Meaning and Purpose of the Study
After more than ten years of development, Chinas stock market experienced a variety of reforms, and has made remarkable achievements. At the same time, due to the establishment of short time, and deficient system, the participants conduct is not standardized yet, the emerging stock market also emerged a number of problems, leading to large fluctuations in stock price, big speculative grades and great risk. In order to prevent and to avoid stock market risk, our government has set up some relevant policies when built stock market. And also, Chinas policies concern the stock market, care and foster care it, resulting that the stock market has had a “highly dependent” in policy.
This paper research policy factors on the stock price fluctuations, by establishing an econometric model, approach of the laws of Chinas overall stock market volatility, to provide a policy basis for the Chinese government on standardizing and developing the stock market, but also can provide the basis for the stock market participants on drawing up an invested (or speculative) strategy, to achieve profit objectives.

1.2 Literature Review
1.2.1 Overseas Literature Review 
Rigobon and Sack (2001) measured the reaction of policy worked on the stock market in America, the results demonstrated that, stock market had a strong feedback towards the policy. Sprinkel(1964) came up with that the stock price is a direct function of the change in money supply in the past, through comparing the graphics of stock prices and money supply growth rate. Through the creation of the regression equation of money supply and stock prices, Homa and Jaffee(2001) explained that the money supply has a direct impact on stock prices. Which Hamburge and Kochin(2002) had found out is that, the supply of money in the stock market not only has an indirect influence (through the indirect impact of interest rates), but also has an important short term direct impact, and this effect is independent of the money supply, interest rates and the company expects earnings produced the effects.
1.2.2 Domestic Literature Review
Pan Weirong, Mei Xue(2002), and Hu Jinyan(2002) have found that the abnormal volatility index is almost correspond with the new policies, by studying the abnormal fluctuations of Shanghai and Shenzhen cities, among which policies hold the highest rate 52% as the first one to affect the indexs fluctuate. By comparing the daily average excess return index of the publication of the policy 15 days before and 15 to 30 days after, Peng Wenping and Xiao Jihui(2002) have found that more than 60% of the number of policy would result in greater volatility in the market.
Many studies tend to the unity of conclusion that, Chinas stock market is a typical “policy market”, in which policy has led an important factor to the volatility of Chinas stock market price. In the research of detailed and exact manifestations “policy effect” in Chinas stock mark本论文由英语论文网提供整理，提供论文代写，英语论文代写，代写论文，代写英语论文，代写留学生论文，代写英文论文，留学生论文代写相关核心关键词搜索。