摘要:The research results show that sign-orientedmodels have better performance in the prediction of abnormal earnings compared totraditional model. Using forecasted abnormal earnings in all of the valuation functionsindicate that none of the studied models can appropriately forecast firm’s value.
-2004 0.721884* 0.74 0.872184* -0.182181* 0.74 0.125879* -32.98580* 0.62 0.5706* -0.091790 -13.00296* 19.87825* 0.71 1.245715*
1998-2005 0.016118* 0.54 0.016102* 0.091433** 0.51 -0.101156* -35.69544* 0.49 -0.092718* 0.329638* -32.77021* 44.58863* 0.57 1.239737*
1998-2006 0.016113* 0.51 0.016097* 0.091541** 0.48 -0.083822* -30.44098* 0.43 -0.0293* 0.493369* -11.18442* 17.12382* 0.57 1.245292*
1998-2007 0.0116150* 0.48 0.0116314* 0.555364* 0.52 0.038908* 6.7988** 0.73 -0.0966* 0.136475 -34.1754* 41.97902* 0.55 1.236819*
**: significant at 5%; *: significant at 1%
Table 5: Comparison of Research Models in Respect of EFR hypothesis
Estimation Sum of Squared Residuals Akaike criterion Schwarz criterion
period Model1 Model 2 Model 3 Model4 Model1 Model 2 Model 3 Model4 Model1 Model 2 Model 3 Model4
1998-2002 1.42E+16 1.38E+16 7.78E+15* 1.33E+16 33.45458 33.44088 33.78357 33.42573* 33.46944* 33.4706 33.81329 34.48515
1998-2003 1.63E+16 1.57E+16 9.15E+15* 1.53E+16 33.57183 33.55164 33.75925 33.53872* 33.58449 33.57695* 33.78456 33.58934
1998-2004 1.08E+18 1.06E+18 9.33E+17* 1.02E+18 34.6913 34.6714 34.82401 34.65403* 34.70237 34.69354* 34.84615 34.69831
1998-2005 1.19E+18 1.19E+18 9.46E+17* 9.75E+17 34.67778 34.67297 34.656 34.44694* 34.68764 34.69271 34.67574 34.48641*1998-2006 1.2E+18 1.2E+18 1.03E+18* 1.14E+18 34.818 34.81378 34.99906 34.77017* 34.82692 34.83162 35.01691 34.80586*
1998-2007 1.2E+18 1.2E+18 1.25E+18 4.38E+17* 34.80467 34.72798 34.72636 34.62259* 34.81283 34.74429 34.74267 34.65521*
*-indicating superior model
International Research Journal of Finance and Economics - Issue 36 (2010) 70
Table 6: Persistence Tests of Negative and positive Abnormal Earnings
Negative abnormal earnings persistence test
(H0:ω11 = 1)
Positive abnormal earnings persistence test
(H0: 1 11 11 Estimation ω +ω + = )
period
F statistic Sig F statistic Sig
1998-2002 2.27 0.0133 150.027 0.000
1998-2003 6.6 0.0107 156.43 0.000
1998-2004 5.62 0.0183 156.57 0.000
1998-2005 163.808 0.000 615.55 0.000
1998-2006 163.510 0.000 615.77 0.000
1998-2007 383.037 0.000 11.31 0.001
The contents of this table show that though the negative abnormal earnings are regarded
temporary- contrary to our expectation- they show a higher stability as compared to the positive type.
Perhaps, this is because of the lacking conditions assumed by Giner and Iniguez (2006) in Iran. So that,
firstly, there is no liquidation option in Iran and, secondly, the firms’ critics in Iran is mainly due to
boycott imposed on this country and there is no hope to solve it in a short time.
4.5. Review of the EVR Hypothesis
To survey this hypothesis, with using the coefficients obtained by the formation of regression relation
of each model in previous steps, and, also, with using simplified valuation functions special for each
model (as presented in section 3), it has been paid to the estimation of firm’s value each year and, then,
all estimated values related to the years from 2002 to 2007 were compared with the relevant market
prices with using the following tests.
3. T test is used to review if the means of the estimated and real values are equal.
4. Wilcoxon signed-ranks test is used to review if medians of the estimated and r
本论文由英语论文网提供整理,提供论文代写,英语论文代写,代写论文,代写英语论文,代写留学生论文,代写英文论文,留学生论文代写相关核心关键词搜索。