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When considering a new product or service, how would you set about testing your idea to examine its commercial potential? [4]

论文作者:英语论文论文属性:学期论文 termpaper登出时间:2014-03-12编辑:caribany点击率:8325

论文字数:2588论文编号:org201403101405041479语种:英语 English地区:英国价格:免费论文

关键词:commercial potentialtesting your ideacurrent customer marketinnovation of new productspromotion of the new products

摘要:As there are many ways at hand to examine the commercial potential of the new idea, it is essential to select a series of methods that match with the characteristics of the products. Moreover, the comprehensive use of statistical and forecasting methods also carries more weight during the procedures.

tant impact on sales of new products


ii. Design a central system to forecast the sales of new products and prepare an accessorial model to predict the relevant variables;
Most of the new product sales forecasting models include two aspects: the commercial potential and the market penetration. If it is a special product that may be exclusive in the market, the market penetration can serve as the estimated value of the new product sales. But most markets are flooded with various kinds of competitors, and the market penetration can only be considered upper limit of the overall market sales. Sales forecasts for individual companies must rely on further analysis and prediction. The sales forecasting of new product can be calculated by the formulas mentioned above namely the combination of key factors. 
The following example is a sales calculation of durable goods:
Volt  =(Adpt)×(Buyt)×(Awrt)×(Sfct)×(Uset)

Volt= the sales forecast  
Adpt=the estimated number of adopters in the market in T phase (from the Commercial opportunity forecast) 
Buyt=the estimated market share of the new idea (Predict the number of buyers with given information about product features, prices, and competition)
Awrt=the proportion of customers who know about the new product in T phase
Sfct =the strain capacity of sales people (through sales efforts, the proportion of buyers changed from traditional adopters in T phase) 
Uset=in T phase, the average purchase per buyer   

Variables of the model above still require an accessorial model to calculate. For example, Adpt (the estimated number of adopters in the market in T phase) may utilize the model of market penetration to forecast. Other variables need some necessary deputy model, as they are influenced by product features, price, competition and other factors. The following is the functional form of these variables:
Buy = f (product features, price, competition and other factors) 
Awr = f (advertising, sales scale, public promotion, and other factors) 
Sfc = f (compensation incentive system, sales performance, and other factors) 
   
 Sales forecast concerning the common commodity may also include other variables, such as repurchase Intentions, free samples, intensity of sales spots and so on. For example, the variable about ease of purchase of the new product may be expressed as the following:  Avl = f (the number of distributors, the scale of distributors and other factors).

iii. Collect variables’ data from the model;
The data may be obtained through market research, interviews with focal customers, collecting information on demand, analysis on industry competition and so on.
iv. Assess the concept of the new product and investigate the market responds;
The evaluating tools and procedures include:
a) Present a description of a new product to specify the concept;
b) Assess the purchase intentions;
c) Analyze the market structure and accurate market positioning; 
d) Make analyses of customer preference and market segmentation;
The procedures of development and assessment will give rise to a new product development strategy with a clear idea of market.

v. Forecast the market share and sales;
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