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competition, the market share of the new product ideas (Buy value) needs to be forecast to serve as the basis for sales forecasting. This prediction of market share may be collected from the research of purchasing intentions, or the utility analysis focusing the product characteristics in order to determine the final buyers. The estimated value of market share can be quoted into the model mentioned to calculate the potential sales.

i. Continue updating data, models of methods, and results of forecast.
Updating and amending the data and model at all times are necessary means of any forecasting, and especially for sales forecasting model. What’s more, the sensitivity analysis of sales forecasting model can be used to develop more ideal concepts and marketing strategies of the new products.

Conclusion

The core concept of the new idea is the creative generation of the internal development team of the company. A complete concept of product is formatted after discussion and communications between internal and external people involved (Midgley, David, Grahame, 1978). Ordinarily, the so-called product concept is produced by consumers’ demand, and then converted into descriptive features and translated into engineering factors, and finally manufactured to get the finished product. For marketers, it is critical to make reasonable forecast in terms of commercial potential, consumer respond of new products or services and perception of risk (Kim and Atuahene-Gima, 2010). Although two methods are illustrated in this essay, according to different contents, there are still various forecasting methods which are valuable to examine the commercial potential of the new product. For example, when precision requirement of prediction is low, the experience judgment and the forecast survey may be useful including individual discretion, Specialist Research and so on. On the contrary, building the mathematics model of forecasting containing Time-Series method, Season changes method, Markov forecasting method, Linearity regression method and Extrapolate method is effective to improve the precision of forecast (Dalrymple, 1975).


As there are many ways at hand to examine the commercial potential of the new idea, it is essential to select a series of methods that match with the characteristics of the products. Moreover, the comprehensive use of statistical and forecasting methods also carries more weight during the procedures.

REFERRENCE:

Dalrymple , D. J. (1975). Sales Forecasting Methods and Accuracy. Business Horizons: Vol. 18,(6), 69-73.
Kim, N. and Atuahene-Gima, K. (2010). Using Exploratory and Exploitative Market Learning for New Product Development. Journal of Product Innovation Management:Vol. 27 (4), 519 – 536.
Lawrence, M. , Edmundson, B. and O'Connor, M. (2000). A Field Study of Sales Forecasting Accuracy and Processes. European Journal of Operational Research:Vol. 122, (1), 151-160. 
Midgley, David F., Grahame R. Dowling. (1978). Innovativeness: The Concept and its Measurement. J. Consumer Res: 4, 229–242.
Rothe, J. T. (1978). Effectiveness of Sales Forecasting Methods. Industrial Marketing Management: Vol. 7, (2), 114-118.
Silk, A. J. and Urban, G. L. (1976). Pre-test market evaluation of new packaged goods: a model and measurement methodology. Working papers: 834-76, 67-72.<本论文由英语论文网提供整理，提供论文代写，英语论文代写，代写论文，代写英语论文，代写留学生论文，代写英文论文，留学生论文代写相关核心关键词搜索。