AGING AND PRODUCTIVITY AMONG ECONOMISTS [4]
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关键词:AGINGPRODUCTIVITYECONOMISTS
eclining presence of older authors in top economics journals does not occur because older authors who keep submitting papers suffer higher rejection rates.
The probits included interaction terms between indicator variables for age and the extent of citations. (Low-cited economists were defined as those with fewer than 10 citations per year, well-cited with at least 10.) As figure 1 clearly shows, acceptance rates for each age group differ sharply by citation status. Comparing authors age 36-50 to those over 50, it is quite clear that the degree of heterogeneity increases with age. This appears to be less true in comparing the oldest to the youngest group, but that inference is due mainly to a very small sample. (Only six authors under age 36, the future superstars of the profession, were well cited.) The general tenor of the combined results from this sample is that the profession signals to less able scholars that their work no longer meets the profession's highest standards, and most of them respond by reducing their submissions to the highest quality journals.
III. Conclusions
We have followed the careers of economists and measured the demographic characteristics of publishers in leading journals. The evidence seems quite clear that publishing diminishes with age, especially publishing in leading journals, at rates as rapid as in the physical sciences. Indeed, remarkably few older peoplepublish successfully in the scholarly outlets on which the profession places the highest value. As economists age, those who were the most productive early in their careers are among the few "survivors" still contributing to scholarship through the leading scholarly outlets.
Whether this relationship is due to natural declines in capacity or decreased incentives to produce is extremely difficult to discern. Unlike athletes, where it is likely that pure physical deterioration causes the reduction in productivity with age, among scholars even the fairly subtle facts that we have uncovered can be marshaled as support for each of these competing hypotheses. Without direct observation on how scholars' use of time changes as they age, we are unlikely to be able to distinguish between explanations of the declining ageproductivity relationship in science.
REFERENCES
Berger, Mark, and Frank Scott, "Changes in U.S. and Southern Economics Deparment Rankings over Time," Growth and Change 21 (Summer 1990), 21-31.
Blank, Rebecca, "The Effects of Double-Blind versus Single-Blind Reviewing," American Economic Review 81 (Dec. 1991), 10411067.
Diamond, Arthur, "The Life-Cycle Research Productivity of Mathemati cians and Scientists," Journal of Gerontology 41 (1986), 520-525.
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