政府决策与国际关系 [4]
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关键词:政府决策国际关系International Relations
摘要:在这里,理论的一个重要贡献是帮助分析人员意识到他们应该努力什么样的情报,以获得提升的预测。
ange of influence and participants in decision making game have relatively consistent interests, using rational actor model is better. In this scenario, although each player in this game still owns various opinions on the branches of details, they all have a similar goal in general so that they are able to fight against enemy together. If we use the governmental politics model, benefit may not be the most important object in analysis. Futher investigation is located on the differences of idea and cognitive due to different positions of each participant. On the contrary, if the event has different effects on each participant in this decision making game, the game tends to be zero-sum, the applicability of the rational actor moedel will be reduced greatly. So the final decision is more like a result of compromise rather than a design based on the collective benefit maximization. the more players in a game, the more chaotic the reality will be. Staggered stakeholders often seem to bring a absurd result which is far away from the interpretation of the rational actor model. In fact, even in physics that need to pursue precision, subtle changes in initial condition will make the final results fairy different from the outcome predicted by mathematical equations, so does the social
Science. At this moment, the governmental politics model which is on the basis of rich details is superior.
Second, when a country is close to dictatorship, the rational actor model will have more explanatory powers. Because under an authoritarian regime, the assumption of regarding the state as a unform actor has a great basis in reality. Although there are many other participants in decision making process, most of them are advisers, not the players who possess independent status. So we only need to put ourselves on the dictator’s position, then we are able to make good judgments. Conversely, if a country has a diverse political forces, the governmental politics model will be more appropriate.
Third, the tecnnical feasibility is also an critical basis when selceting which theory should be applied. From the former analysis we can see, the amout of evidence required for applying two models, rational actor model and governmental politics model, are very different. If researchers have enough abilities to collect sufficient details and inside stories, then there is no doubt that the governmental politics model will be the best choice. If not possible, using rational actor model in most cases is enough to help us get close to the reality.
Chapter 3 rethinking the theories of international relations
After two chapters, it seems that we need to further consideration the question raised at the beginning: why do we need theory? If we are simply to know reality itself, the researchers just need to give more sufficient details objectively and neutrally. However, once the theory is used as a auxiliary, we may observe the reality more deeply. Anatomy of reality can merely answer the question “what is it”, but theory can help us reveal the inside causality. Theoretical model is realistic mapping, which inevitably ignore some details. We do not have to pursue a perfect explanation on every part of reality when applying the theory. What we should do is to concentrate on whether it presents the vital causality clearly. In this process, the value of the theory is also reflected by helping the external analysts to realize what kind of evidence should they ge
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