留学生政府债务作业范文参考 [3]
论文作者:英语论文论文属性:本科毕业论文 Thesis登出时间:2014-10-22编辑:yangcheng点击率:15297
论文字数:5703论文编号:org201409182323537527语种:英语 English地区:美国价格:免费论文
关键词:债务政府支出凯恩斯多重影响家用消费
摘要:本文是一篇留学生的政府债务论文,政府支出效应对于个人消费的冲击已经很长时间处于宏观经济政策的商榷的中心舞台。正如Tobin在1952年最初在一篇文章中发表的一样。
being issued; assuming the existence of rational utility maximising agents we find that these rational agents would recognise this equivalence , and will proceed with their lives as if this Government debt issue never existed- and it is concluded that government debt has no effects on economic activities. Its needless to mention that like all revolutionary theories and men this theory has not gone unchallenged. It has also been agreed upon now for some time that the future taxes needed to finance government intrest payments would offset the direct positive wealth affect, as Bailey(1971) argues to the extent that:
‘'it is possible that households regard deficit financing as equivalent to taxation. the issue of bonds involves a liability for future interest--- thus implies future taxes that would not be necessary if finances were funded by current taxation.......If future tax liabilities implicit in deficit financing are accurately foreseen , the level at which total tax recipts are set is immaterial: the behaviour of the community will be exactly the same as if the budget were continuously balanced''
Though concrete conclusions regarding the aggregate effects of public debt have not yet been brought forward, two overall results have been made quite clear. The first least controversial one being that ricardian equivalence is not seen to hold completely in any scenario. The foundations of any effects of government debt depend on subtle concepts and assumptions of variables contributing towards or against this equivalence theorem. These assumptions cover areas such as the extent of altruistic behaviour between generations, strategic behaviour and foresightedness of individuals with regard to their family relations, the nature and constraints on budget and liquidity, and the effects of different types of uncertainity on maximisation decisions of households. Careful scrutiny of all these assumptions and constraints suggest that the equivalence may be implausible.
The second more controversial one goes forward by sayin that though implausible in deciphering the effects of public debt , Ricardian equivalence still holds as a good approximation. The vast empirical literature is quite clear cut in refuting these claims of neutrality. The fact overlooked here is that estimation is susceptible to simultaneity, data stationarity, measurement error, and the treatment of specification of the model. Thus focus is shifted a bit to the interesting issues present within econometric modelling. Much of the published literature that has labelled the theorem as false have payed no heed to these inherent susceptibilities, and when we turn to the very few methodologically sound studies we find it hard to excerpt any statistically significant effect of debt suggesting that Ricardian Equivalence holds as an approximation. In elaborating on this second conclusion i would like to quote Seater(1993):
Whether one regards the apparent empirical validity of Ricardian equivalence as an indication of 'truth' depends on the kinds of changes in the economic arena one is willing to entertain. Under historical regimes, Ricardian equivalence appears true; under other possibilities, it might not be.
Basically the way societies have issued and retired debt in the past has made significant effects of it vanish. If societies continue to behave in the same way then the theorem holds as an approximation, but
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