电子货币:新的一天或者假黎明-Electronic Money: New Day or False Dawn [16]
论文作者:英语论文论文属性:课程作业 Coursework登出时间:2014-05-07编辑:caribany点击率:23962
论文字数:12223论文编号:org201405061752588441语种:英语 English地区:中国价格:免费论文
关键词:电子货币Electronic MoneyElectronic commerce电子商务Electronic Payments
摘要:预期电子货币的时代,虽然在当今迅速全球化的世界经济中是一个完全自然的发展,但确实对货币政策的有效性产生了深远的影响。随着电子货币的到来,货币创造将日益私有化。
as open-market operations and discount-rate policy to guide bank lending in national money. But insofar as the public has access to other monies too, additional room for slippage or unpredictable lags is created in the transmission mechanism running from policy implementation to bank reserves to deposit creation.
Further refinements of policy are thus required to ensure that overall goals are met. Key questions include: How large is the supply of alternative currencies in circulation? How much spending can those alternative currencies support? And how easy is it for residents to switch back and forth between the national money and others in response to central-bank actions? (Technically, how great is the cross-elasticity of substitution between currencies?) In effect the supply of national money must now be treated as a residual, managed so as to complement expected developments in the non-national component of the total money stock in circulation. Once due account is taken of the availability of substitute currencies, parameters can be established for open-market operations and discount-rate policy that will, with luck, still exercise something like the desired influence on macroeconomic performance.
Though tricky, therefore, the dilemma is potentially manageable - but only so long as the residual represented by the supply of national money does not become too small. And there, of course, lies the rub. In reality, in an increasing number of countries, the local currency's share of monetary aggregates is already dwindling rapidly as a result of deterritorialization. This is clearly demonstrated by recent data from the IMF (Baliño et al. 1999: 2-3) reporting the percentage of "broad money" (M2) accounted for by foreign-currency deposits in a number of middle-income and developing economies around the world -- a rough measure of currency substitution. Even without the additional component of foreign banknotes in domestic circulation, which is by definition unknowable, the numbers are telling. In as many as a dozen and a half countries, from Azerbaijan to Uruguay, a third or more of the broad money stock is now comprised of currencies originating elsewhere. In three dozen others, the percentages are smaller but nonetheless significant and in most cases growing. In all these economies, the supply of national money is indeed fast becoming a residual too small to have much direct effect on aggregate expenditure.
In this context, electronic money will add quantitatively to a central bank's problems but not, in any meaningful sense, qualitatively. For these countries the real discontinuity has already arrived -- with deterritorialization, which broke the direct link between national money supply and nominal demand. Their monetary space has already been invaded; their central banks are already being forced to fight for market loyalty; their sovereign power, accordingly, has already begun to wane. The advent of electronic money will simply hasten the ebbing of the tide by contributing still more currencies to the competitive fray - some of which could turn out to have wider appeal than the government's own brand of money. The battle facing these central banks will not be new, just more intense.
Implications for reserve centers
What then of the reserve centers, whose currencies are doing the invading? Until now, these economies have enjoyed something of a free ride - all the benefits of competitive
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