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摘要：本文是对毛里求斯的环境库兹涅茨曲线分析的留学生国民核算论文，本文试图通过考察碳排放的情况及其对国内生产总值(GDP)影响来估计毛里求斯的环境库兹涅茨曲线(EKC)，同时分析通货膨胀率、失业率和人口规模这些变量与GDP和碳排放之间的直接或间接联系。文章考察了毛里求斯在1990 - 2010年期间的经济增长与碳排放之间的关系。

and the main unit test that was used was the ADF test. Since the data trends were not following a stationary process, time lags had to be used so as to smooth the data. The time lags were determined using both the Akaike Information Criteria (AIC) and the Schwarz’s Bayesian Information Criteria (BIC). These information criterions were used so as to be able to devise time lag properties for the date trends of CO2 and GDP.

The following figure illustrates the ADF test for CO2;

Figure : ADF for CO2

Figure 8 shows the ADF test for CO2 and it can be observed that the time lad lengths taken were two. The AIC and BIC verified that a time lag of two is enough to be able to make the data follow a stationary process and hence a time lag of two was the optimal lagged difference as per the two information criterion.

The following figure shows the ADF test for GDP;

Figure : ADF for GDP

Figure 9 shows the ADF test for GDP and it can be observed at time lag two the data went on to follow a stationary process. Again, the lagged differences were obtained following the AIC and BIC approach so as to determine the optimal lags.

To increase the efficiency and reliability of the ADF test, the equivalent test which is the DF-GLS test proposed by Elliot et al. (1996) was also applied. Under the DF-GLS test, time lags were chosen as per the Ng-Perron modified AIC (MAIC), the Schwarz’s Criterion (SIC) and the Ng-Perron sequential t approach.

The following figure, analyses the DF-GLS test for CO2:

Figure : DF - GLS test for CO2

Figure 10 shows the DF-GLs test for CO2 and it can be observed that the maximum time lag devised is same as the ADF test which is two and the minimum SIC and MAIC is one. The MAIC was used, SIC when lags are set to be minimized and when a trend term is not included.

The following figure shows the DF-GLS test for GDP;

Figure 11 shows the DF-GLS test, whereby minimum time lag entered here is 1 and the SIC and the MAIC too is one. Reapplication of these tests indicates that both the variables now follow a stationary process.

Univariate Model Equation:

The following figure shows the regressed CO2 over GDP so as to be able to draw a regression curve and to formulate and equation from it.

The above equation is derived from figure 12 and (X) represents the figure to be inserted concerning GDP so as to be able to get the equivalent amount of CO2.

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