Abstract
Purpose – The paper aims to provide insight into the opportunities and impact of political risks in China and selected Asian countries on opportunities in infrastructure projects under public-private partnership (PPP) schemes. Design/
methodology/approach – The impact of political risks on PPPs was investigated through an international survey among senior staff of international lenders, investors, insurers, and legal and financial advisors from the public and private sector. The surveyed political risk categories base on the Multilateral Investment Guarantee Agency Convention and
literature review. They comprise six categories: currency inconvertibility and transfer restriction, expropriation, breach of contract, political violence, legal, regulatory and bureaucratic risks, and non-governmental action risks. The survey evaluation uses fuzzy sets and non-parametric
statistics.Findings – The findings comprise rankings of political risk factors within China and Asian countries as well as rankings of these countries with respect to the risk categories and rankings of future PPP opportunities over time. Also, survey comments are discussed.
The views expressed herein are the authors’ and do not reflect the policies of the Asian Development Bank (ADB), Ernst & Young, KfW-IPEX Bank, Ministry of Public Works (Indonesia), Chair of Construction
Economics at BUW, Nanyang Technological University, or any other entity.Many thanks to all survey respondents for their time and effort in answering the questionnaire and responding to additional queries and evaluations. The survey has been commissioned with the support of James Neal, Ernst & Young, Partner, Global Head of Project
Finance, Daniel Wagner, Senior Guarantees and Syndications Specialist, Office of Co-financing Operations, the Asian Development Bank (ADB), Bela Onken, Senior Project Manager, Team Project Finance, KfW-IPEX Bank, Professor Dr Hans Wilhelm Alfen, Chair of Construction Economics, Bauhaus University Weimar (BUW) and head of EU-Asia network for PPP. The survey has been designed, conducted, evaluated, and authored by Tillmann Sachs and Dr Robert Tiong from the Nanyang Technological University, Singapore............................................
1. Introduction
1.1 Background of political risks in Asian PPPs
1.2 China: relevance of political risks in PPPs and lessons learned
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2. Survey design and evaluation methods
2.1 Survey objectives
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2.8 The QQIR method
3. Political risks and future PPP opportunities in China and selected Asian
countries
3.1 Perceptions on political risks in China and selected Asian countries
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4. Validation
5. Survey comments and discussion
6. Conclusion
Note
References
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