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论文作者:www.51lunwen.org论文属性:硕士毕业论文 dissertation登出时间:2015-05-12编辑:felicia点击率:25573
论文字数:13668论文编号:org201505081941513653语种:英语 English地区:印度价格:免费论文
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摘要:这是一篇澳洲留学论文,主要分析印度经济的发展状况,浅析影响经济发展的重要因素。
Having carried out the ADF test, we find that the data is stationary and integrated at the second order difference, since there are no unit roots. In addition the r-squared value seems to give clear indications that the data variables are integrated at high confidence. The next step in the econometric modelling of the data series is to apply the Johansen and Juselious multivariate cointgration test, in order to see how well the independent variables are related to the dependant variable. Based on results of the cointegration test, (Appendix A), the r-squared value is 0.995684 which indicates that the there is cointegration within the variables. In addition, the following is the equation derived from the cointegration test, (Appendix A):
INDPROD = 22.7695018516*LIMPORTS + 17.7511310651*LRGDP + 0.199769944585*TARIFFRATES - 356.096941274
In conclusion to the data analysis, the test seems to indicate that the variables seem to be cointegrated. Therefore, the hypothesis based on whether import liberalisation hurts domestic industries and export levels, may not be true. However, the results of the analysis would have been more accurate if there was a wider availability of data.
Conclusion
The main objective of this dissertation was to investigate whether import liberalisation hurts domestic firms and export levels. The data analysis was based on four economic variables that were from 1988-2008. The econometric analysis also indicates that Industrial production is cointegrated with imports, real GDP. Hence a reduction in tariff rates has led to an increase in the industrial production and imports. In addition, the GDP rate for the economy has also been increasing. Moreover, it has become quite clear that pre-liberalisation the restricted trade policies adopted by the Indian government had led to decline in domestic manufacturing and growth of the economy. This is clearly evident in the graphs illustrated in chapter 12, where we can clearly identify no growth in exports corresponding to relatively high tariff rates. In addition, the level of imports and industrial production demonstrated very small signs in growth during the licensing period. Hence, it can be argued that the majority of domestic industries were not able to expand and become more productive, due to the restrictive licensing policies on local industries and high trade barriers. Up until the mid 1970s, the domestic firms continued to suffer from the unfeasible trade policies placed on them by the government. However, towards them mid 1980s onwards there was promising changes made to trade policies by the government, in order to achieve economic and enable domestic firms to become more productive and efficient. By 1991, almost all the restrictive policies had been either significantly reduced or abolished, and the Indian economy had officially become more open to trade. In addition, the effects of these changes are reflected in chapter twelve, as we can see a sharp rise in both imports and exports which lead to increase in overall industrial production.
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