对于弱式市场效率的测试 [6]
论文作者:www.51lunwen.org论文属性:课程作业 Coursework登出时间:2015-11-13编辑:chenyuting点击率:11779
论文字数:4903论文编号:org201511091615083759语种:英语 English地区:美国价格:免费论文
关键词:Weak-form Market Efficiency投资决策
摘要:本文测试了美国市场的弱式效率。每日和每月的回报都采用自相关分析,方差比测试和延迟测试的方法,最后,得出了三个结论。
es in all lags at all levels, while none of FARO, FEIC and NAN D10 has significant Q values.
Based on above daily observations, we may conclude that the null hypothesis of no serial correlation is rejected at all levels for LION and NAN D1, but the null hypothesis cannot be rejected at either 5% level or 10% level for FARO, FEIC and NAN D10. This means that both LION and NAN D1 are weak-form inefficient. By looking at their past performance, we find that while NAN D1 outperformed the market in sample period, LION performed badly in the same period. Therefore, it seems that stocks or indices with best and worst recent performance have stronger autocorrelation. In particular, LION shows a positive autocorrelation in returns, suggesting that market-wide indices with outstanding recent performance have momentum in returns over short periods, which offer predictable opportunities to investors.
When monthly returns are employed, no single stock or index has significant AC or PAC in any lag reported at 5% level. It is in contrast with daily returns, which means that monthly returns follow a random walk better than daily returns. More powerful L-B test confirms our conclusion by showing that Q statistics for all stocks and indices are statistically insignificant at either 5% or 10% level. Therefore, the L-B null hypothesis can be conclusively rejected for all stocks and indices up to 3 lags. When compared with daily returns, monthly returns seem to follow random walk better and are thus more weak-form efficient.
A.2. Tests for Squared Log-Returns
Even when returns are not correlated, their volatility may be correlated. Therefore, it is necessary for us to expand the study from returns to variances of returns. Squared log-returns and absolute value of log-returns are measures of variances and are thus useful in studying the serial dependence of return volatility. The results of autocorrelation analysis for daily squared log-returns for all three stocks and two decile indices are likewise reported in Table IV.
In contrast to the results for log-returns, coefficients for FEIC, LION, NAN D1 and NAN D10 are significantly different from zero, except for the forth-order PAC coefficient (0.025) for FEIC, the fifth-order PAC coefficient for LION (-0.047) and third- and forth-order PAC coefficient for NAN D1 (-0.020 and -0.014, respectively). FARO has significant positive AC and PAC at the first lag and a significant AC at the third lag. The L-B test provides stronger evidence against the null hypothesis that sum of the squared autocorrelations up to 5 lags is zero for all stocks and indices at all significant levels, based on which we confirm our result that squared log-returns do not follow a random walk. Another contrasting result with that of log-returns is that almost all the autocorrelation coefficients are positive, indicating a stronger positive serial dependence in squared log-returns.
In terms of monthly data, only FEIC and NAN D10 have significant positive third-order AC and PAC estimates. Other stocks and indices have coefficients not significantly different from zero. The result is supported by Ljung-Box test statistics showing that Q values are only statistically significant in the third lag for both FEIC and NAN D10. This is consistent with the result reached for log-returns above, which says that monthly returns appear to be more random than daily re
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