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ly half of all world exports (Hartmann 1998) -- more than double America's share of world exports alone. The DM share of invoicing in recent years was fifteen percent (roughly equal to Germany's proportion of world exports); the yen's share, five percent (less than half of Japan's proportion of world exports).
A parallel story is evident in international markets for financial claims, including bank deposits and loans as well as bonds and stocks, all of which have grown at double-digit rates for years. Using data from a variety of sources, Thygesen et al. (1995) calculated what they call "global financial wealth": the world's total portfolio of private international investments. From just over $1 trillion in 1981, aggregate cross-border holdings quadrupled to more than $4.5 trillion by 1993 -- an expansion far faster than that of world output or trade. Again the dollar dominated, accounting for nearly three-fifths of foreign-currency deposits and close to two-fifths of international bonds. The DM accounted for 14 percent of deposits and 10 percent of bonds; the yen, 4 percent of deposits and 14 percent of bonds. More recently, the International Monetary Fund (1999) put the total of international portfolio investments (including equities, long and short-term debt securities, and financial derivatives) at just over $6 trillion in 1997.
The clearest signal of the rapid growth of CS is sent by the rapid increase in the physical circulation of these same currencies outside their country of origin. For the dollar, an authoritative Federal Reserve study (Porter and Judson 1996) put the value of US banknotes in circulation abroad in 1995 at between 55 and 70 percent of the total outstanding stock -- equivalent to perhaps $250 billion in all. The same study also reckoned that as much as three-quarters of the annual increase of U.S. notes now goes directly abroad, up from less than one-half in the 1980s and under one-third in the 1970s. Appetite for the greenback appears to be not only strong but growing. Using a comparable approach Germany's Bundesbank (1995) has estimated Deutschmark circulation outside Germany, mainly in East-Central Europe and the Balkans, at about 30 to 40 percent of total stock at end-1994, equivalent to some DM 65-90 billion ($45-65 billion). The Deutschmark's successor, the euro, is confidently expected to take over the DM's role in foreign-domestic use once euro notes enter circulation in 2002 and perhaps even to cut into the dollar's market share. And similarly, on the other side of the world, Bank of Japan officials have been privately reported to believe that of the total supply of yen banknotes, amounting to some $370 billion in 1993, as much as ten percent was located in neighboring countries (Hale 1995). Combining these diverse estimates suggests a minimum foreign circulation of the top currencies in the mid-1990s of at least $300 billion in all -- by no means an inconsiderable sum and, judging from available evidence, apparently continuing to rise rapidly.
The evidence also appears to suggest that a very wide range of countries is affected by the phenomenon, even if the precise numbers involved remain somewhat obscure. According to one authoritative source (Krueger and Ha 1996), foreign banknotes in the mid-1990s accounted for twenty percent or more of the local money stock in as many as three dozen nations inhabited by at least one-third of the world's population. The same source als