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The next two forecast characteristics that we consider are forecast horizon, an indicator of forecast timeliness, and annual and quarterly forecasting frequency, an indicator of prior forecasting intensity (or, alternatively, an indicator of the establishment of a forecasting history). Table 1 shows that Forecast Horizon is significantly longer for family firms using both the Wilcoxon and the t-tests. Thus, family firms appear to issue their guidance sooner than non-family firms—and thus appear to be more timely disclosers. Turning next to the prior forecasting frequency variables, family firms have a stronger history of providing forecasts (both annual and quarterly are significantly greater for family firms with p-values < .01). Thus, Table 1 provides evidence of family firms being more timely in their issuance of guidance—and of having established stronger, more consistent histories of issuing guidance than non-family firms.

To assess the content of the forecasts issued by family and non-family firms, we next examine the Forecast Error (actual earnings per share minus the guidance number) and Forecast Surprise (the guidance number minus the consensus analyst forecast at the time of the guidance announcement) variables.[16] We note that we calculate forecast errors and surprises for point and range forecasts only, and that we use the midpoint of the range as the forecasted number for the range forecasts.[17] We also note that the forecast error variable is, in some sense, a “forward looking” measure in that it assesses how the management forecast fares relative to the actual earnings per share number that the firm releases in the near future. In contrast, the forecast surprise variable is a “current” variable in that it measures the deviation of management's forecast from the current market expectation of earnings as measured by the analyst consensus forecast prevailing at the time of the management forecast.

The results of both the Wilcoxon and two-sample t tests indicate that forecast errors do not differ significantly between family and non-family firms—a finding that provides initial evidence of family firms not offering forecasts that are differentially accurate when compared to the actual earnings per share number that they later release. Again, this result is not very surprising since there is little reason to believe that family firms would face differential incentives for such short-term forecasting. However, when forecast surprises are considered, some of the results change. Although the forecast surprises arising from point forecasts in guidance are not significantly different between family and non-family firms, those arising from range-forecast guidance are significantly smaller for family firms (p < .01 for both the Wilcoxon and two-sample t-tests). This suggests that when managers use this most common form of guidance, those affiliated with family firms adjust the market consensus for smaller deviations from their own forecast. These univariate results, when considered with the generally narrower range estimates offered by family firms, provide additional, preliminary support for H1 that family firms offer more specific and timely forecasts than non-family firms. However, we offer this conclusion with the caveat that we have not yet controlled for本论文由英语论文网提供整理，提供论文代写，英语论文代写，代写论文，代写英语论文，代写留学生论文，代写英文论文，留学生论文代写相关核心关键词搜索。