Age Structure and Economic Growth
论文作者:51lunwen论文属性:硕士毕业论文 thesis登出时间:2007-02-07编辑:点击率:2920
论文字数:9736论文编号:org200702072133004761语种:英语 English地区:中国价格:$ 66
关键词:Age StructureEconomic Growth
Abstract
This paper first reviews the past, present of world population and China’s population, especially the latter one. Then, we give the three views about the relationship between population change and economic growth. After that, we give our position that the most important is the age structure of population not the quantity itself. Nations with a high proportion of children are likely to devote a high proportion of resources to their care, which tends to depress the pace of economic growth. By contrast, if most of a nation’s population falls within the working ages, the added productivity of this group can produce a "demographic dividend" of economic growth, assuming that policies to take advantage of this are in place. And if a large proportion of a nation’s population consists of the elderly, the effects can be similar to those of a very young population. Then we examines the relationship between population change and economic development in particular regions of the world: East Asia; Japan; OECD, North America and Western Europe; South-central and Southeast Asia. We also do some empirical work on China’s and India’s case. Finally, we conclusion our argument and give some advise about how China can get it’s "demographic dividend".
Key words: Economic Growth; Demographic Transition; China Population;
CONTENT
Abstract………………………………………………………………………………0
Introduction…………………………………………………………………………1
Section 1: World population and China population: past, present and future…1
1.1 The world population: past, present and future…………………………………1
1.2 China’s population: past, present and future……………………………………2
Section 2: The Debate over the Effects of Population Change on Economic Growth………………………………………………………………………………3
2.1 THE PESSIMISTIC THEORY: POPULATION GROWTH RESTRICTS ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT…………………………………………………4
2.2 THE OPTIMISTIC THEORY: POPULATION CHANGE CAN FUEL ECONOMIC GROWTH…………………………………………………………8
2.3 THE NEUTRALIST THEORY: POPULATION CHANGE HAS NO SIGNIFICANT EFFECT ON ECONOMIC GROWTH……………………… 9
2.4THE IMPORTANCE OF AGE STRUCTURE……………………………… 11
Section 3:Demographic Transitions, the Demographic Dividend and Case study…………………………………………………………………………………13
3.1 THE DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSITION: DECLINING MORTALITY AND FERTILITY……………………………………………………………………14
3.2 Case Studies of Population Change and Economic Growth………………… 21
East Asia………………………………………………………………… 21
Japan………………………………………………………………………22
OECD, North America and Western Europe…………………………… 23
South-Central and Southeast Asia……………………………………… 23
Latin America…………………………………………………………… 24
Middle East and North Africa…………………………………………… 25
Sub-Saharan Africa……………………………………………………… 25
Section 4: the demonstrational study of the relation between economic growth the population in China and India……………………………………………… 26
4.1 China case…………………………………………………………………… 27
4.2 India case………………………………………………………………………28
Section 5: conclusion………………………………………………………………29
Reference……………………………………………………………………………31
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