The Relation between Economic Growth and Population
论文作者:None论文属性:课程作业 Coursework登出时间:2007-02-07编辑:点击率:3973
论文字数:519论文编号:org200702072139097747语种:英语 English地区:中国价格:免费论文
关键词:RelationEconomic GrowthPopulation
The Relation between Economic Growth and Population
(It just is the draft and more details will be presented if you want)
Introduction
In this paper, we first discuss the implication of the relation between Economic Growth and Population in the Solow Model and the Malthus Theory, and we also give the debate of the effect that the population impose on the economic growth: is it positive or is negative. Then, we survey the status quo of China’s population and try to find out the reasons of China’s increase of population, and we give the effect that the China’s population on the it’s Growth. At last, we want to do some experiential work to check out the effect the population in China and India on their economic growth using the econometric tools as SAS software.
Part 1: Growth Model (main Solow Model) and the Malthus Theory
At this part, our main task is giving the theory about the population’s effect in the Growth Model. In the Solow Model, we have
at the equilibrium path, we have =0,and the rate of economic growth is ,it does not affected by the save rate. It means that the rate of the economic growth equal the rate of the population growth. When the rate of the population change, the rate of the economic growth also change, at the same time, the changes too.
Expansion: Then, to more realistic, we will discuss the mitigation in models of economic growth, especial in the Solow Model. Let M(t) be the flow of migrants into the domestic economy and the quantity of capital that each migrant brings along. The domestic population and labor force, ,grow due to fertility net of mortality at the constant rate n. the overall growth rate of the domestic population is therefore
where is the net migration rate. We have omitted time subscripts for convenience.
The change in the domestic capital stock is given by
Where s is the constant gross saving rate.
Part 2:China’s population increase (under constructing).
Part 3:Econometric analysis using the SAS software
In this part. We first consider the relation in China’s data. Use the cobb-douglas function, we will give the impact that the labor on the GDP. The function is as bellow:
gdp=-0.33768 + 0.54056 labor + 0.45944 capital
and the Root MSE is 0.08772;R-Square is 0.9797.all test have past.
so, we can find the relation between population and investment and that between consumption and economic growth. At this foundation, we will give our conclusion about the relation in China and comment on China’s population policy.
Second, we give our find about the impact that the invest, consumption and net export on India’s economic growth. (The function is under constructing)
Conclusion:
We think that what important is the “real” population in Solow Model. And if country want to turn the population to a resource of economic growth, it must attract more capital in production and education. More import, it also must simulate consumption in it’s people. The real important is not the nominal population, but the real population and the consumption introduced by huge population.
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