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in real GDP of Mauritius increases volume of imports from US by 1.38%. It is also significant at 1% level of significance. This result is in line with that obtained by Haque et al.

The real exchange rate also is significant at 10% and is of the expected negative sign. A 1% increase in the real exchange rate of the Rupees against the dollar leads to a 0.78% decrease in imports. This is because an increase in LRER means that the Rupee is depreciating vis-?-vis the US dollar which makes the foreign price of imported goods denominated in the local currency higher. That is local consumers will have to pay more for the same goods. Hence demand for imported goods will decrease.

The coefficient of LINF is negative and significant at 5%. However the effect of inflation on imports is quite small since a 1% increase in the rate of inflation brings about only a 0.12% increase in volume of imports. This may be because inflation rate in Mauritius is quite low and stable.

Finally the R2 is 0.8815 which means that the independent variables explain 88.15% of the changes in the dependent variable. The Durbin Watson is 0.12 which is close to 2, indicating that there is no autocorrelation.

4.7.2 短期内的方程——4.7.2 The Short run equation

The short run equation for volume of imports can be formulated as follows:

?LIMPt= ?0 + ? 1?LRIMPt-2 + ? 2?LVt-2 + ? 3?LRYt-2 + ? 4?LRERt-2 + ? 5 ?LINFt-2 + ?8 Rt-2 + ut-1

The results indicate that apart from ?LRERt-2, and Rt-1, all the variables are insignificant in the short run. Hence ?LRIMP, ?LVt, ?LRYt and ?LINFt has no immediate effect on the volume of exports. This may be because imports from US represent only a small share of total imports from US for Mauritius and hence changes in real GDP, volatility and inflation rate does not have any major effect on volume of imports in the short run. However ?LRERt is significant and negative. Hence a 1% increase in the exchange rate causes level of imports to increase by 0.96%.

Finally the error correction term, Rt-1 is statistically significant and negative which confirm the existence of a long run relationship. The coefficient of the error correction term is 0.31 and suggests a fairly high speed of adjustment from the short run deviation to the long run equilibrium in RIMP. It indicates that 31% of the deviation is corrected every year

第五章：总结——Chapter 5: Conclusion

5.1 归纳与总结——5.1 Summary and Conclusion

This study examined the impact of exchange rate volatility of exchange rate volatility on bilateral trade flows between Mauritius and USA. Cointegration was used to estimate the long run equation and an error correction model was used to specify the short run equation. The empirical showed that exchange rate volatility has a negative but insignificant impact on bilateral exports and imports. Therefore it can be concluded that exchange rate volatility does not have any effect on bilateral trade between Mauritius and USA.

Also, the results showed that other economic variables were significant at explaining volume of trade. In the long run, real exchange rate, foreign income and private investment had the greatest impact on the volume of exports and had