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论文题目：英国贝德福德大学经济学作业：Forecasting of textile mill products
论文语言：英语论文 English
论文专业：business administration
字数：2000
学校国家：英国
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论文用于：BA assignment 本科课程作业
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英国贝德福德大学经济学作业：Forecasting of textile mill products

Abstract

This paper selected the time sequence of the textile production number set. The paper discusses three methods which can be used in forecasting and two methods which are denied. Then we have a discussion of problems in long-term prediction. Finally, we have a full comprehension of forecasting.

本文选取纺织生产数的时间序列集。本文讨论了三种方法可用于预测所没有的两种方法。然后我们有一个长期预测问题的探讨。最后，我们预测的一个充分理解。

Abstract 3
1.0 Introduction 4
Diagram 1 5
2.0 Discussion of three methods 5
2.1 The two moving average 6
2.2 Exponential smoothing method 6
2.3 Linear regression 7
3.0 Some methods disable to forecast 8
3.1 Simple moving average 8
3.2 Arithmetic average method 9
4.0 Problems in long term trend prediction 10
Conclusion 10
References 11

1.0 Introduction

This paper selected the time sequence of the textile production number set. The article will discuss the scope of application whether the model is chosen or refused. According to the data display, number increase from 6734 to 10578 from period 1 to period 100, just a small number of data generations of trend deviation outside, most of the data along with the year of growth and increase (diagram 1). It is suitable for time series model from the data trend. Using EVIEWS software to make difference on data, first order difference is significant, but two order differences is not remarkable. We make a scatter diagram from the data, then we can see that the data distributed linearly overall, growth trend is obviously, and they are have no preiodic variation. So we choose the following three ways as a predictive method: the two moving average, exponential smoothing method and linear regression.

References

1. Olshansky, S. J., Passaro, D. J., Hershow, R. C., et al (2005) A potential decline in life expectancy in the United States in the 21st century. N Engl J Med. 352: 1138–1145.
2. Peeters, A., Barendregt, J. J., Willekens, F., Mackenbach, J. P., Al Mamun, A., Bonneux, L. (2003) Obesity in adulthood and its consequences for life expectancy: a life-table analysis. Ann Intern Med. 138: 24–32.
3. Ogden, C. L., Carroll, M. D., Curtin, L. R., McDowell, M. A., Tabak, C. J., Flegal, KM. (2006) Prevalence of overweight and obesity in the United States, 1999 to 2004. JAMA 295: 1549–1555.
4. Landis, J. R., Lepkowski, J. M., Eklund, S. A., Stehouwer, SA. (1982) A statistical methodology for analyzing data from a complex survey: the first National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey. Vital Health Stat. 92: 1–52.
5. McDowell, A., Engel, A., Massey, J. T., Maurer, K. (1981) Plan and operation of the Second National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey, 1976–1980. Vital Health Stat. Series 1: 1–144.