摘要:本文是一篇加大拿温哥华大学的留学生财政政策assignment,我们将讨论中国政府通过的财政政策作用和类型,以防止他们的经济受到全球金融危机,因为在世界上大多数国家的经济已经受到危害。
output. Increase demand of labor will creates jobs for unemployed labor and raises the wage rate, while increase demand of capital will raises the return to capital that lead private sector investment more profitable in future. In the other hand, Market of intermediate goods will be create when increase in demand, therefore, demand will be meet when increase supply of the goods. Due to production growth, private sectors including households and firm’s income will be increase and so do their savings.
As government invests public good in the stimulus package, it also brings some positive effect to the private sector productivity. For an example, transportation and transaction costs for a firm can be reduce significantly due to improve of roads quality and better infrastructural. Furthermore, stimulus package also include the investment in technological change and innovation, with such action, China’s competitiveness in the world can be improve as expected increase rapidly in productivity grow.
Due to the China’s stimulus package just start in late of year 2008, it takes time to implement and the result cannot be show immediately. To analyze the impact of this stimulus package, a dynamic computable general equilibrium model (DCGE) can be use to study the economic impacts of the recent global recession and China’s stimulus package. Basically DCGE model is a multisectoral general equilibrium model which captures economic activities on both demand and supply sides. The DCGE model unable to fully assess the whole process of economic response to a stimulus package, because excludes the financial movement of the economy or monetary policy effect.
Impact on Gross Domestic Product
Without taking stimulus package by China government into account, the analyzed from the research by Xinshen Diao, Yumei Zhang, Kevin Z. Chen (2010) show large negative growth effect for the China due to recent global recession.
Figure 1: Annual growth rate of total and sectoral GDP in the base run (%), 2008-15
This research ignore the decline in the China economy in 4th quarter of 2008, it show a higher growth rate compare to data reported by China’s National Bureau of Statistics.
Table 3: Growth Rate of Selected Economic Indicator
Sources: GDP data from China Statistical Yearbook (NBS 2009a) and website of National Bureau of Statistics of China Trade (China Custom Statistics 2009); foreign direct investment (FDI) data from website of the Ministry of Commerce of China (Ministry of Commerce 2009).
Impact on Exports and Imports
Author state that the growth of overall economy led by growth in the industrial sector which includes construction sector and export oriented manufacturing sector. Trade sector contribute to the primary factor to the declining industrial growth. Most of the export oriented manufacturing sectors in China are also import-intensive. Thus, when their production falls, demand for imported material or intermediates also will falls, and the falling rate can be greater than falling rate of export due to side effect.
Figure 2: Growth rate of total exports and imports (%), 2008-15
Impact on Sectoral Gross Domestic Product
In figure 3 bellow, the growth rate of total GDP in the stimulus run on year 2009 is still lower than in year 2008 due to global crisis, but it is m
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