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The third column shows the largest impact. Here individuals are assumed to change their behavior in the face of the pandemic by (a) reducing air travel in order to avoid infection in the enclosed space of a plane, (b) avoiding travel to infected destinations, and (c) reducing consumption of services such as restaurant dining, tourism, mass transport, and nonessential retail shopping. The degree to which such reactions would occur is necessarily uncertain. In this scenario it was assumed that for the year as a whole air travel would decline by 20 percent and that tourism, restaurant meals, and consumption of mass transportation services would also decline by 20 percent.

The assumed 20 percent declines are well below the peak decline of 75 percent in air travel to Hong Kong during the SARS epidemic and an average decline of 50-60 percent during the four-month period the outbreak was active. Retail sales declined by 15 percent at the peak, and by about 9 percent over the four month period, implying about 15 percent decline from trend over the four month period or about 5 percent on an annualized basis. Sharper declines on an annualized basis are assumed in these observations because a flu pandemic would last more than a year (pandemics are typically experienced in at least two waves with peak period of infection during the winter).

3.2 Total cost to the global economy

In the scenario presented in Table 2 above, the total impact of a shock combining all these elements is 3.1 percent for the global economy. The impact ranges from 4.4 percent in Latin America and the Caribbean to 2.6 percent in the East Asia and Pacific region, mainly reflecting the relative importance and labor intensity of tourism and other services in each region. In this scenario of a moderately severe pandemic, the total cost to the global economy would be slightly more than $2.0 trillion. In the case of a more severe pandemic, however, such as one causing a 4.8 percent drop in economic activity, the total cost to the world economy is estimated to be about $3.13 trillion.

The modeling attempted to take into account the possibility that the economic effects of a pandemic would be greatest in the country where the human-to-human strain originates, the main factor here being private and public efforts to isolate and contain the disease by avoiding travel and imposing quarantines. However, observations of an outbreak beginning in Thailand suggest that whatever additional costs the originating country might endure, these would be dominated by secondary effects as the disease spreads to other countries and global economic activity declines.

3.3Sector Specific Impact

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