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rs Bureaucracy 14
2.3 Sources of Information for Decision-Makers 17
2.4 The ID Fourth Division 17
2.5 Foreign Policy Initiation 18
2.6 Foreign Policy Coordination 19
2.7 Subversion of Established Policies 20
Section III - Decision-Making in the People’s Liberation Army High
Command 22
3.1 The Central Core 22
3.2 The General Staff Department 22
3.3 Interaction Between the Military and Civilian Decision-
Making Processes 24
3.4 Summary 28
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Page
Section IV – The Future Evolution of China’s Foreign Policy
Making System 30
4.1 The Great Leap Forward 30
4.2 The Complexity of the International Environment: The
Reliance on Information for Decision-Making 30
4.3 The Evolving Future 31
Section V – The Role of Think Tanks in the Formulation of China’s
National Security and Foreign Policy Decision-Making 32
5.1 Overview 32
5.2 The Development of Think Tanks 32
5.3 Structure of Think Tanks 35
5.4 Government Research Institutions 36
5.5 University-Based Think Tanks 39
5.6 Independent Research Institutions 40
5.7 Summary 41
Section VI – Military-Related Think Tanks and Research Institutions
In China 44
6.1 Overview 44
6.2 The Role of Military Research Institutions 44
6.3 Intelligence Analysis Research Institutions 46
6.4 Weapons Research and Arms Control Institutions 47
6.5 Exchange-Related Research Institutions 48
6.6 Research Related Institutions 49
6.7 Summary 50
Appendix A – China’s National Security and Foreign Policy
Decision-Making Support Institutions 52
A.1 Chinese Foreign & Defense Policy Authors at Seven Main
National Security and Foreign Policy research Institutions 52
A.2 China Institute for Contemporary International Relations 54
A.3 China Institute of International Studies and Shanghai
Institute of International Studies 54
A.4 Chinese Academy of Social Science 55
A.5 Academy of Military Science 56
A.6 National Defense University 59
A.7 Chinese Society for Strategy and Management 60
A.8 Foundation for International Strategic Studies 61
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A.9 Commission on Science, Technology, and Industry
for National Defense (COSTIND) 61
A.10 China Aerospace Science and Technology Corporation 62
A.11 China Institute of International Strategic Studies 63
Appendix B – China’s Military Capabilities 66
B.1 Introduction 66
B.2 Intercontinental Nuclear Forces 66
B.3 Regional Nuclear Forces 68
B.4 Short-Range, Low-Yield Nuclear Weapons 69
B.5 Ground Forces and Tanks 69
B.6 Air Forces and Combat Aircraft 71
B.7 Submarines 74
B.8 Amphibious Assault Ships 77
B.9 Potential Chinese Uses of Armed Force Against Taiwan 78
B.10 Combined Arms Attack and Invasion 79
B.11 Missile Attack 79
B.12 Blockade 79
B.13 Summary 80
Bibliography 82
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Acronym List
AMS Academy of Military Science
CAS Chinese Academy of Sciences
CASS Chinese Academy of Social Sciences
CC Central Committee
CCGO Central Committee General Office
CCIS China Center for International Studies
CCP Chinese Communist Party
CDSTIC China Defence Science and Technology
Information Centre
CFA Central Foreign Affairs LSG
CFEA Central Financial & Economic Affairs LSG
CICIR China Institute for Contemporary International
Relations
CIFA Counterinte