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regulations there has been a lot of scrapping of single hull tankers recently on account of the requirements for double hull tankers. Double hull tankers are required more for imports into Europe and North America. But there are also nations that ignore the IMO and still use single hull tankers. Although there has been a lot scrapping of old single hull tankers, there is still a very high number of new buildings waiting to be delivered. Oil and politics are linked in an inextricable way. Changes of governments’ policy in oil imports or exports can influence the international tanker market dramatically. In this sector also the role of China as a total net importer is very important. Taking China as an example, in the past 10 years, it has gradually become the second most oil consuming nation in the world. In order to fulfill this huge demand for oil, the Chinese government has decided to develop a domestic tanker fleet. As a result between 2000 and 2009, the number of VLCCs (Very Large Crude Carrier) in the Chinese merchant fleet rose from 11 to 55 vessels. This increase has had a great impact on the demand of tankers. Substitution is another important factor influencing international seaborne oil transport. Pipeline has become a reliable way of oil transportation, decreasing the demand for oil transferred by the sea. Pipeline transportation has its advantages such as large quantity of transportation, lower investment and strong sustainability.

6.4 Conclusion

In conclusion group 5C would say that for a healthy demand in current shipping services there has to be a revival in consumer demand and especially in the developed world. This is because demand for shipping is a derived demand and therefore it is unable to fuel demand for its prices by pricing mechanisms. Demand for shipping also changes very fast and a close monitoring of changing trends in international trade is a good indicator for predicting the demand for shipping. The BRIC countries (Brazil, Russia, India and China) have the biggest potential to stimulate the global demand for oil, dry bulk and container shipping. China is said to be building “10 Manhattans” domestically and this might prove as a future indicator for the demand for shipping. Economists are currently analyzing what would happen if Asia would loose its lead as a manufacturing and production center if transport costs keep on going up (on account of environmental regulations and escalating fuel costs). This might reduce the ability of these countries to compete in the production of manufactured goods although they have an advantage in low labour costs. Would production move back to the consumption areas of Europe and North America? So to end we can stress that to predict demand for shipping is easier said than done and there is no rule of thumb.
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