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policy response.

Vietnam's public debt situation is also a pressure on the economy. Recently the number of initial public debt to be informed has increased rapidly to 56% of GDP for 2011 and may be 60% for the next two years. But these numbers only include debt of the central government and the provinces. If after adding the debt of state enterprises guaranteed by the government in accordance with international standards, the public debt could reach 100% of GDP which is large at an alarming rate.

The economic slowdown in the U.S. and the debt crisis in Europe is also awaken the world about the need to maintain macroeconomic stability and strengthen fiscal tightening operation to reduce public debt withoutit is necessary for sustainable growth in demand. From the above and its ripple effect, predictions of a possible further decline in the next few years is not unfounded.

If the U.S. economic recession, Vietnam will be affected in all three directions:

First, the U.S. is the largest export market, accounting for 24% of total exports in 2007. As Americans tighten spending, make sure to export to the U.S. will be more difficult times, the main export items of Vietnam textile, footwear ... will be cut first.

Second, when the U.S. economic downturn, the region most affected East Asian countries account for 60-70% of the total investment in Vietnam. Meanwhile, these countries will tighten spending, encourage exports make investment in Vietnam may be reduced, Vietnam's exports will face a big challenge. Competition among Southeast Asian countries have the same structure of exports to Vietnam will be more intense.

Third, financial resources, capital indirect investment in Vietnam, especially the stock market will decline.

The Direct influence on Vietnamese enterprises

According to the Center for Information Industry and Trade (Ministry of Industry and Trade):

- Vietnam's export goods are mostly essential consumer goods should be less affected by consumer demand for non-essential goods is a downward trend in the world market.

- The risk of large for exports continue to suffer negative effects from the financial crisis and global economic recession caused consumer channels difficult, especially in developing economies.

- The continuous increase in the protection policy and technical barriers are allowed to restrict imports; same time, they also made the export-oriented solutions to the economic recovery.

In the domestic market, tight monetary policies continue to impact on the business. Lending rates despite a downward trend but is still relatively high compared with the average of the region and the world. Shortage of labor, especially skilled labor is becoming an alarming situation, labor costs also tend to rise makes Vietnam's exports losing cheap labor cost advantage as before.

For essential goods such as food - food, are more likely to be less affected by the general consumer demand will not decline.

The global impact for Enterprise and Industry.

- The impact of the world crisis in recent years to make the small and medium enterprises in Vietnam faced many difficulties partly rejected contract, slow consumer products, inventory and more. The affected part of the tight monetary policy, bank credit growth limit as high int