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性——Exchange Rate Volatility
 
There are a number of ways of measuring exchange rate volatility. One of the methods used by many researches is the standard deviation. The exchange rate volatility will be calculated by the standard deviation of the monthly percentage changes in the exchange rate a year. The effect of exchange rate volatility on exports is, from the theoretical viewpoint, ambiguous and may have a positive or negative impact on export flows.
 
投资——Investment
 
Investment will be measured as a percentage of GDP. A positive sign is expected as an increase in investment will normally lead to an increase in exports. Data will be obtained from the CSO.
 
通货膨胀——Inflation
 
A negative coefficient for inflation is expected as an increase in inflation will make exports prices less competitive in international market. Data will be obtained from the CSO.
 
外国的产能利用率——Foreign Capacity Utilisation
 
A negative sign is expected between foreign capacity utilisation and exports, This is because an increase in foreign capacity utilisation will lead to a decrease in exports. Data will be obtained from the federal reserve statistics release website.
 
3.3.2 导入功能——3.3.2 The import function
 
The long run demand function is specified as follows:
 
Mt = { Vt, RGDPt, RERt, INFt }
 
RIMPt = ?0 + ? 1Vt + ?2RGDPt + ?3RERt + ?4INFt+ut
 
The above equation will be expressed in its logarithmic form which gives:
 
LRIMPt = ?0 + ? 1LVt + ?2LRGDPt + ?3LRERt + ?4LINFt + ut
 
Where
 
Vt=Exchange rate volatility
 
LRIMPt =Real Imports
 
LRGDPt =Real Domestic Income
 
LRERt =Bilateral exchange rate
 
LINFt= The domestic inflation rate
 
ut =The error term
 
4.1.1 变量的定义—— 4.1.1 Definition of variables
 
真正的进口——Real Import
 
Real import is the dependent variable in the above equation. It reflects the inflation adjusted imports from the USA. Real Imports is obtained by dividing the nominal imports by impor pirces. The data for imports will be obtained from the CSO
 
实际国民收入——Real Domestic Income
 
Real domestic income will be measured by the real GDP of Mauritius. The coefficient is expected to be positive since an increase in the real GDP of Mauritius is expected to increase the demand for foreign goods, i.e for US imports. Data about GDP will be obtained from the CSO.
 
双边汇率——Bilateral exchange rate
 
It is the real bilateral exchange rate between US dollars and Mauritian rupees. In this case also the real exchange rate must be defined in a manner that an increase in LRER reflects an appreciation of the Mauritian Rupee, which means the US dollar is depreciating against the rupee an hence imports are cheaper. This will positively effect imports from the US. Hence a negative coefficient is expected.
 
汇率波动性——Exchange rate volatility
 
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