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摘要：本文是一篇美国留学论文范文指导。1973年石油价格上涨对能源利用和能源效率产生了重要影响,尽管大部分的影响是短暂的。在2003年到2004，有效石油价格翻了一番,在这段时间内，达到50美元/桶，最近它已经达到超过90美元/桶的价格水平。本文简要分析了石油价格的影响因素，对价格危机进行了简要的分析。

技术期货&商业策略评估项目

第一部分

米歇尔·葛发准确的预测表明,定性参数是重要的。在国际文学中使用可用的信息，字数控制在1000到1500字:

1.提到的定性参数可能被认为是未来的能源价格方案。为此，2020年，通过列表简要说明应该包括的参数。

2.这些参数可以合理量化吗?(试图识别至少五个参数)

3.你同意这个特定方面的主张吗?为什么或为什么不呢?

4.危机评估技术预测的准确性影响。确定参数描述方面的危机。据此，你可以充分体现出关于你预测有效性的意见。

5.使用从1967年到1987年的核能装机数据,估计(使用外推技术)预期核能1987年和2007年之间的时间进化。评论预测的准确性与数据的真实性。你可以提及任何交货时间及切尔诺贝利事故和重大事故之间的国际电力市场的反应吗?

第二部分

1973年石油价格上涨对能源利用和能源效率产生了重要影响,尽管大部分的影响是短暂的。在2003年到2004，有效石油价格翻了一番,在这段时间内，达到50美元/桶，最近它已经达到超过90美元/桶的价格水平。

“TECHNOLOGY FORECASTING - CRISIS ANALYSIS”

Technology Futures & Business strategy 1st Assessment Project

PART ONE

Michel Godet indicated that qualitative parameters were important in accurate forecasting. Using the available information in the international literature and between 1000 and 1500 words:

1. Mention the qualitative parameters that may be considered in future energy price scenarios. For this purpose take the year 2020 and list, with a brief explanation, the parameters you consider should be included.

2. Which of these parameters can you reasonably quantify? (Attempt to identify at least five parameters)

3. Do you agree with this specific aspect of Godet's proposition? Why or why not?

4. Evaluate a crisis impact of the accuracy of technology forecasting. Identify the parameters characterizing the crisis aspects. Accordingly, present your opinion about the validity of the forecasts.

5. Using the installed nuclear power data between 1967 and 1987 estimate (using extrapolation techniques) the expected nuclear power time evolution between 1987 and 2007. Comment on the accuracy of your forecasts in relation with the real data. Can you mention any lead time between the major accident of Chernobyl and the reaction of the international electrical power market?

PART TWO

The OPEC oil price rise in 1973 had an important effect on energy use and energy efficiency, although much of the impact was short-lived. In 2003-4 the oil price effectively doubled, reaching $50/barrel for a period and lately it has reached over $90/barrel.

A major player now is Gazprom in Russia News has broken that Gazprom will cut supplies of natural gas to Europe unless it is allowed to raise prices by 200% for export customers, (Customers in Russia historically pay much lower prices). Using the available information in the international literature and between 2000 and 2500 words:

6. Describe your measured response to this, as either an energy Supplier or major energy user.

7. Would you say that your response was based upon “out of the box” solutions, or a more conservative, incremental approach?

8. Discuss the relative merits and limitations of each of these possible responses, identifying what you believe the two approaches mean.

9. How this crisis shall influence the future本论文由英语论文网提供整理，提供论文代写，英语论文代写，代写论文，代写英语论文，代写留学生论文，代写英文论文，留学生论文代写相关核心关键词搜索。