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If the latter is valid, the corresponding demand will not be met, prices will rise, inflation, and international tension will become very likely to occur, and inevitably energy users will have to ration (Wirl, 2008). Overall, what the combination of energy mix with energy reserves provides is the measuring of security of supply, the latter configuring the supply and demand tensions, largely shaping energy prices. Besides, targets set in respect of renewable energy sources further penetration also provide a quantification view; e.g. the EWEA target for 22% coverage of the European electricity consumption by 2030 (EWEA, 2006).

Next, expressing economic growth on the basis of gross domestic product (GDP) suggests a constant increase of the former within the range of an average 3% to 4% per year (IMF, 2004), noted during the period from 1970 to 2003. Again, inequity that is to be considered among different world regions is directly related with the previous parameters, illustrating the energy requirements' variation. A characteristic example considers China demonstrating an average annual percent change of GDP 2.4% greater than the world average. In 2.3, the respective trends of GDP growth up to the year 2020 may be obtained.

Finally, the environmental impact of energy use being expressed on the basis of GHG emissions not only considers the fuel mix and energy consumption but also takes into account the technology used for energy generation. Taking CO2, an increase of 17Gt in a 34 years period, i.e. from 1970 to 2004 (IPCC, 2007), indicates the strong increasing trend, also presented in 2.4. Given also some of the commitments adopted in order to mitigate the greenhouse effect however (e.g. the Kyoto protocol), further quantification, not relying solely on past trends, is possible. The stimulation of additional mitigation measures until 2020 is rather likely, this both imposing the need for shifting to non-fossil fuels and developing cleaner energy generation technologies.

Considering the various parameters' trends illustrated above, one may sense that the tensions between supply and demand, this comprising the main driver for energy prices, are going to rise. Energy consumption, GDP and population rates on one hand demonstrate the demand side, while declining reserves and mitigation measures describe the opposite supply side. In between, the decisions for future energy fuel mix patterns, although able to completely reverse the energy market's status quo, are not thought to radically vary within the next 10 to 15 years. Hence, unless some major changes occur, the rising tensions between supply and demand imply both instability and increase of prices on a global level with strong differentiation to be encountered among different world regions. As far as the degree of energy price variation is concerned, the implementation of forecasting may both incorporate all of the pre-mentioned parameters and provide various scenarios considering each one's expected future time evolution.

Question 3

As previously seen, several parameters were acknowledged in order to form future energy price scenarios. Wh本论文由英语论文网提供整理，提供论文代写，英语论文代写，代写论文，代写英语论文，代写留学生论文，代写英文论文，留学生论文代写相关核心关键词搜索。