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ear followed by commercialization of 3G. The calculation has been explained in detail in section 5.4.2. Generally on the basis of prediction made by PTA that around 25% of cellular subscribers in Pakistan will shift from their 2G network to revolutionary 3G (UMTS) technology followed by its launched, I have managed to forecast total expected subscribers possessed by the 3G market of Pakistan from 2011-2020. Based on my analysis, it can be comprehended that if 3G is commercialized in 2011 then approximately 24.5 million customers (25% of existing 2G customers) will join 3G in its opening year shifting from their 2G network. Additionally as shown above in figure 5.7 (section 5.4.2), approximately 3.46 million customers will enter the 3G market annually. Finally the figures obtained for total expected subscribers in 3G market are divided between leader (75%) and follower (25%) based on their 3G market share which has been demonstrated in figure 5.8 shown below.

 

It can be comprehended from the figure above that in the first year of commercialization of 3G (2011) there would be approximately 24.5 million customers. Therefore according to the respective 3G market share, leader will obtain approximately 28.375 million customers whereas follower will manage to obtain around 6.125 million customers which have been used as input for model 1.

 

Moreover the model also required the correlation between P and Q as an Input. However based on past trends and historical information, it has been found that there is no correlation between these two variables. The reason being that in this particular scenario the concept of Economies of Scale (EOS) is invalid. Generally with respect to EOS, profit per unit is reduced when larger quantities are sold but in my study ARPU is not dependent on number of subscribers due to the fact that each customer is charge individually for the service provided.

 

CORRELATION BETWEEN RETURNS AND INVESTMENTS:

 

In order to calculate the correlation coefficient between Returns (ARPU) and investment cost I have taken into account the data provided by PTA for ARPU of Pakistan cellular industry during 2005-2009 along with Investments made in Pakistan cellular industry during the period of 2005-2009. Furthermore I have computed the Natural log of both ARPU and Investments in order to obtain precise existing correlation between them. Based on my analysis, the correlation between these two variables turns out to be -0.703 which has been demonstrated in figures shown below.

 

THE PRESENT VALUE OF CASHFLOW:

 

The second pre-emption model ““RIVALRY UNDER NET REVENUE & INVESTMENT COST UNCERTAINTY” that I have taken into account requires the present value of future streams of cash flow as an input variable. Based on the theory provided by Majd and Pindyck (1987), it emphasizes that in order to obtain appropriate present val本论文由英语论文网提供整理，提供论文代写，英语论文代写，代写论文，代写英语论文，代写留学生论文，代写英文论文，留学生论文代写相关核心关键词搜索。