英语论文网

been put forward. From the analysis provided it becomes clear that forecasting methods that solely rely on past data trends, disregard the wishes of relevant actors and major players, and do not consider the conditions forming the environment where the phenomenon develops cannot capture a broader view of the situation and thus give valid predictions.

Question 5

As already addressed, the limited ability of quantitative parameters and extrapolation techniques to provide a valid forecasting, especially in the case where a crisis was to follow, is indisputable. To validate the conclusion made and further support Godet's beliefs an example is presently given. Using the installed nuclear power data between 1967 and 1987 along with the application of extrapolation techniques (the forecast function is currently used) one may present the expected nuclear capacity time evolution for the next twenty years. A straightforward comparison of the extrapolation s with the respective real data for the period 1987 to 2007 is available in 5.1.

What of course cannot be captured by the extrapolation technique is the Chernobyl crisis, deeply influencing any further development of the nuclear installations. It was on the 26th of April 1986 that reactor number four at the Chernobyl Nuclear Power Plant, located in Ukraine exploded. By considering the magnitude of consequences that the Chernobyl accident entailed (UNDP & UNICEF, 2002), one may easily realize the cut back of nuclear capacity in the years to come. Furthermore, what is interesting to note is the different influence that the Chernobyl accident had in countries around the world. In 5.2 one may see the immediate response of the Russians, the Germans and the Ukrainians, while it took a little longer for the USA to reconsider its nuclear program. On the contrary, countries like France and Japan continued to install nuclear plants, while on the other hand Italy abandoned its nuclear program and gradually decommissioned all of its plants (NEA, 2007).

What is evaluated here, is the conditions configuring the future. Although in a global level, nuclear capacity did stagnate, this was not the case for every country. Depending on each nation's needs, requirements and obligations, a different energy policy may be drawn. If not properly weighing these factors in the forecasting process, the outcome cannot be valid.

Based on s 5.1 and 5.2, one may also note the lead time of both the international community and the selected countries. Regarding the response of the world as a whole, a period of 3 to 4 years is to be considered for the international community to perform the actions concerned with the decision of cutting back on nuclears. As already noted, a varying response time met in different countries may be partially ascribed to the distance range from the area of the accident. However, a bundle of parameters should be evaluated in order to explain and predict each actor's wishes, obligations and decisions.

Moreover, when investigating the long term evolution of nuclear power, one should also consider the factor of a rapidly changing environment. Since the Chernobyl accident and the stagnation of nuclear power occurred, any attempt to re本论文由英语论文网提供整理，提供论文代写，英语论文代写，代写论文，代写英语论文，代写留学生论文，代写英文论文，留学生论文代写相关核心关键词搜索。