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论文题目：dicuss the empirical evidence regarding the ability of forward and /or futures prices to predict future spot prices of assets
论文语言：English
论文专业：finance
字数：2000
学校国家：U.K.
是否有数据处理要求：否
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论文用于：Master assignment 硕士课程作业

Introduction
• Outline the nature of the research problem or question.
• Explain why it chooses this topic and why it is relevant.
• Make it clear what the actual purpose of this research.
• Point out the structure of this study.

1. Introduction
The price discovery function of futures markets means that using futures prices to predict future spot prices. Since 1860 when futures contracts were formally launched, people’s researches on the price discovery function of futures market has never been stopped. And according to Hoffman's theory, many scholars (Hoffman, 1932) put forward that, the characteristics of futures markets themselves determined that information change was always reflected in futures price, therefore, futures markets have price discovery functions. On the contrary, some researchers have proposed different views. Quan (1992) used monthly data to test crude oil market and found spot markets have price discovery functions, and futures markets are only adjuncts of spot markets. Until now, there is no convincing answer to the problem, in this study, it makes use of empirical research methods and takes the raw sugar futures contract traded on NTBOT and raw sugar spots traded on CSCE in U.S. as research objects to conduct a tentative exploration on the price discovery function of futures.

References
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[2] Bopp, A. E. and Lady, G. (1991). A comparison of petroleum futures versus spot prices as predictors of prices in the futures [J]. Energy Economics, 13(4),274-282. https://www.51lunwen.org/CRM/2011/0113/0959179014.html
[3] Bopp, A. E. and Sitzer, S. (1987). Are petroleum futures prices good predictors of cash value [J]. Journal of futures markets, 7,705-719.
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[5] Engle, R. F., Granger, C. W .J. (1987). Co-integration and error correction ,representation estimation and testing [J]. Ecomometrica, 55, 251-276.
[6] Eugene, F. (1969). Efficient capital markets: a review of theory and empirical work [J]. Journal of Finance, 25 (2), 383-417.
[7] Hoffman, G. W. (1932). Future trading upon organized commodity markets in the United States [M]. Philadelphia: University of Pennsylvania. https://www.51lunwen.org/business/
[8] Horbrook, W. (1960). Price effects of futures trading [J]. Food Research Institute Studies, 1, 3-31.
[9] Quan, J. (1992).Two step testing procedure for price discovery role of futures prices [J]. Journal of Futures of markets, 12(99),139-49
[10] Silvapulle, P. and Moosa, I. A.( 1999).The relationship between the spot and futures prices: evidence from the crude oil market [J]. Journal of Futures markets, 19,175-93.